Looking at historical emissions trends reveals which sectors have led Canada’s emissions reduction efforts so far—and which need to do more work.

Tracking historical trends in emissions helps us understand where progress is being made and where course correction is needed to reach Canada’s goal of reducing emissions to 440 megatonnes by 2030. 

In 2020, Canada’s annual carbon emissions were 68.8 megatonnes below 2005 levels, thanks to various policy, market, and technological changes. 

Overall, the electricity sector dominated emissions reductions since 2005, cutting emissions by 61.4 megatonnes. Policies aimed at phasing-out coal and the rapidly declining costs of solar and wind have been major drivers of change in this sector. 

Strides have also been made within heavy industry sectors such as smelting, steel, and cement, as emissions aggregated in these sectors are 15.4 megatonnes lower than 2005 levels. While decarbonizing heavy industry remains a challenge, some industrial sectors, notably cement, have seen significant improvements in energy efficiency since 2005. 

But more work still needs to be done across sectors that have increased emissions since 2005. Emissions in the building sector are 4.1 megatonnes above 2005 levels, but there are opportunities to reduce emissions through the adoption of lower-emitting technologies such as heat pumps. In the oil and gas sector, emissions have risen 7.5 megatonnes since 2005; our analysis shows that, without stronger regulations—namely the proposed oil and gas cap—they will continue to rise this decade.