Data show that shipments of new heat pumps have almost overtaken fossil-fueled furnaces
Heat pumps play a critical role reducing emissions in the residential building sector because they run on electricity and can be up to three times more efficient than a standard gas furnace. This means that not only will they help shift Canada’s dependence away from fossil combustion, but they will also reduce the demand for electricity relative to other technologies, such as electric baseboards which are only 15 per cent more efficient than gas furnaces. That’s important in a sector that makes up approximately 13 per cent of Canada’s national emissions.
Getting households to switch to heat pumps is expected to be the most cost effective way to meet Canada’s climate goals. In Institute analysis of the most cost effective pathways to net zero, heat pumps are projected to represent over 10 per cent of total home heating in Canada by 2030, increasing up to 99 per cent by 2050.
But tracking the rate of adoption in real time is often a challenge, since publicly available data for heat pump uptake can lag by as much as three years. To fill this gap, 440 Megatonnes examined data on the shipments of heating systems, which can be an early indicator of the progress that Canada is making toward electrifying heating and cooling in buildings.
Heat pump shipments are closing the gap to furnace shipments
Shipment data track how many heat pumps are flowing into the country. However, it’s not a perfect indicator: it doesn’t show when heat pumps were purchased or actually installed, whether they are moved across jurisdictions within Canada before their sale, or whether they serve as a building’s primary or secondary heating source. Nevertheless, shipment data is useful because it can give an early indication of increased uptake, as more Canadians eventually buy heat pumps from distributors and install them in their homes.
Using data from the Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Cooling Institute of Canada (HRAI), we analyzed the shipments of fossil fuel furnaces compared to different heat pump systems—including single package, split system, and ductless mini-splits—over the past five years.
Calculating the average annual growth rate in shipments in Figure 1, positive trends emerge for the heat pump transition. Since 2020, heat pump shipments have increased by an average of five per cent annually while furnace shipments have declined by 3.4 per cent on average annually. In turn, the gap between heat pump and furnace shipments has closed significantly, jumping up to 0.84 heat pumps for every furnace shipped, compared to 0.57 in 2020.
Quebec and Atlantic Canada are leading the way in heat pump shipments
Looking at shipments by province, while Quebec currently leads in absolute heat pump shipment volume, followed by Ontario, British Columbia, and then Atlantic Canada, the Prairie provinces actually saw the highest rates of average annual growth. Notably, Alberta led in heat pump shipment growth, up an annual average of 32.9 per cent over the past five years.
Furnace shipments also fell on average 3.4 per cent annually across Canada, decreasing by over 50,000 units over the past five years, and Quebec and the Atlantic provinces saw the largest drops in furnace shipments. In terms of the ratio of heat pumps to furnace shipments, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces are far above the rest of the country, each with more than 50 heat pumps per furnace shipment. While it is important to note that unlike furnaces, some homes may install multiple (usually two or three) heat pumps throughout their homes. Still, even after accounting for this potential discrepancy, the number of heat pumps in these two regions still surpasses the number of furnace shipments.
Historically, the Atlantic provinces have had a few drivers that helped support heat pump adoption, including relatively moderate winters compared to the rest of Canada, volatile heating oil prices which have hurt household wallets, and strong financial incentives such as grants and rebates. In Quebec, on top of their own rebates, adoption has been driven by the fact that Quebec has the cheapest electricity prices in all of Canada. In the Prairie provinces, heat pumps have been less cost competitive due to cheaper natural gas prices relative to electricity. In recent years as the demand for cooling has increased, more households have made the switch to heat pumps instead of air conditioning units.
To summarize the trends above: first, heat pump shipments throughout Canada have remained robust over the past five years as furnace shipments have been declining, resulting in the gap between heat pumps and furnaces being closer than ever before. Second, looking at provincial breakdowns, Quebec and Atlantic provinces still remain leaders bringing in more heat pumps than furnaces, while growth is also starting to pick up in historically lower uptake jurisdictions, like Alberta.
Heat pump adoption in Canada is growing, but needs to accelerate
It can be helpful to compare the above shipment data with existing but lagging data on how many Canadian homes have adopted heat pumps to get a sense of the potential trends.
Overall, the Comprehensive Energy Use Database’s heating stock data also shows similar trends for heat pump adoption. The share of Canadian households that had heat pump systems in 2022 increased to 6.1 per cent, up from 4.8 per cent four years prior, putting Canada closer to alignment with the 10 per cent share in 2030 projected in the Institute’s research (Figure 2). To get on track to this target, heat pump sales will need to accelerate.
As was the case with the shipments data, these data for heat pump adoption show Atlantic Canada and Quebec leading the country. Atlantic provinces have broken well over double digit heat pump adoption, and Quebec has followed second. Adoption from the rest of Canada remains relatively low, with the outlier being B.C. where adoption is starting to pick up. However, the shipment data for these other jurisdictions shows growth in recent years, so we may expect to see adoption following suit in the near future.
Policy support will still likely be necessary to promote adoption for colder climates where colder climate heat pumps are less cost competitive compared to gas, and to address equity barriers like upfront costs for low-income households. Some examples of existing policy programs include Ontario’s new Home Renovation Savings Program that will offer up to $7,500 in rebates for cold climate heat pumps, and CleanBC’s Energy Savings Program, which was recently expanded to provide additional support for low-income households and renters.
Boosting public knowledge and skilled workforce capabilities for heat pumps will also be important to prevent bottlenecks due to labor shortages. Investing in these processes can ensure that homeowners know the full capabilities of their heat pumps, and that the heat pumps are ultimately installed properly across Canadian homes.
Heat pump shipments are starting to take off in parts of Canada—the next step is to get the rest of Canada on board too.
Arthur Zhang is a Senior Research Associate at the Canadian Climate Institute.