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Early Estimate of National Emissions

Independent advance data for Canada’s National Inventory Report 

By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date. To provide more timely emissions estimates to inform decision making, 440 Megatonnes–in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting–has developed an independent Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).

440 Megatonnes releases our annual EENE each September, seven months ahead of the official National Inventory Report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).The EENE estimates emissions by sector, based on economic data and historical trends in energy efficiency, emission intensity, and energy decarbonization. Read more about our methodology here.

In the table below, data from 2005 to 2022 is from ECCC’s official National Inventory Report. 2023 estimates are based on our independent calculations. The percentage change from 2005 to 2023 is calculated using the 2023 estimate.

Read our insight about the main findings of our 2023 EENE.

Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2022 %
kt CO2 eq
TOTAL 761,492 728,517 745,716 752,630 752,025 686,362 698,441 707,767 702,211 -7.8% -0.8%
ENERGY 625,613 605,497 616,936 621,520 621,887 557,697 568,778 577,148 572,858 -8.4% -0.7%
a. Stationary Combustion Sources 338,488 319,102 321,759 323,866 325,933 302,467 303,587 306,085 300,029 -11.4% -2.0%
Public Electricity and Heat Production 123,624 102,166 83,143 70,743 69,431 61,846 60,700 56,426 53,636 -56.6% -4.9%
Petroleum Refining Industries 20,013 19,021 16,047 14,768 15,611 13,609 13,784 14,170 14,045 -29.8% -0.9%
Oil and Gas Extraction 63,277 77,337 98,650 107,416 107,684 103,984 107,723 109,198 111,864 76.8% 2.4%
Mining 4,347 5,278 4,164 5,983 5,970 5,272 6,139 6,154 6,139 41.2% -0.2%
Manufacturing Industries 47,792 41,116 44,033 42,800 43,208 39,451 40,319 41,106 40,512 -15.2% -1.4%
Iron and Steel 5,550 4,948 5,749 6,378 6,056 4,561 5,141 4,888 4,879 -12.1% -0.2%
Non-Ferrous Metals 3,831 3,222 3,363 2,952 3,435 3,243 3,013 3,228 3,176 -17.1% -1.6%
Chemical 8,252 9,866 12,075 9,449 9,637 9,569 9,431 9,203 9,433 14.3% 2.5%
Pulp and Paper 8,576 5,902 5,983 7,074 7,096 6,507 6,828 6,862 6,485 -24.4% -5.5%
Cement 5,382 4,064 3,929 4,315 4,196 3,665 3,686 3,789 3,741 -30.5% -1.3%
Other Manufacturing 16,201 13,114 12,935 12,633 12,789 11,905 12,219 13,135 12,991 -19.8% -1.1%
Construction 1,444 1,515 1,305 1,382 1,441 1,430 1,456 1,589 1,539 6.6% -3.2%
Commercial and Institutional 32,355 28,542 30,400 37,126 38,108 35,168 32,950 34,993 32,955 1.9% -5.8%
Residential 43,457 41,465 41,058 40,466 41,146 38,675 37,421 39,134 35,884 -17.4% -8.3%
Agriculture and Forestry 2,182 2,663 2,959 3,183 3,335 3,031 3,095 3,316 3,264 49.6% -1.6%
b. Transport 190,245 192,367 196,774 208,516 209,890 178,600 188,052 195,887 198,070 4.1% 1.1%
Aviation 7,714 6,680 7,579 8,657 8,579 4,745 5,602 7,683 9,018 16.9% 17.4%
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 7,455 6,423 7,344 8,410 8,336 4,561 5,401 7,487 8,825 18.4% 17.9%
Military 259 257 235 247 242 184 201 196 193 -25.7% -1.7%
Road Transportation 122,339 133,001 128,602 131,532 131,710 110,818 116,220 120,091 120,036 -1.9% 0.0%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 40,613 37,859 34,442 32,973 32,298 24,987 24,148 23,421 23,225 -42.8% -0.8%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 40,906 45,095 47,662 53,290 55,034 47,193 50,481 53,355 53,356 30.4% 0.0%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 4,617 4,582 4,296 4,461 4,524 4,190 4,303 4,057 4,030 -12.7% -0.7%
Motorcycles 459 595 838 922 952 773 765 721 713 55.4% -1.1%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 665 739 700 587 504 310 325 339 335 -49.7% -1.2%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 748 515 587 719 742 598 720 919 925 23.6% 0.6%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 34,308 43,585 40,009 38,449 37,485 32,588 35,287 37,074 37,251 8.6% 0.5%
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 23 33 67 132 171 178 190 206 203 774.0% -1.3%
Railways 6,507 6,390 6,850 7,324 7,378 6,846 6,758 6,756 7,312 12.4% 8.2%
Marine 4,020 3,698 3,095 3,467 4,309 3,842 4,415 4,957 5,078 26.3% 2.4%
Domestic Navigation 3,122 2,848 2,809 3,223 4,046 3,607 4,153 4,674 4,831 54.7% 3.4%
Fishing 871 824 146 159 164 153 181 169 147 -83.1% -13.1%
Military Water-Borne Navigation 27 26 141 86 99 82 81 114 100 270.6% -12.4%
Other Transportation 49,665 42,598 50,647 57,535 57,915 52,348 55,057 56,400 56,626 14.0% 0.4%
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 9,852 9,136 11,715 14,183 14,120 13,206 13,305 13,225 13,097 32.9% -1.0%
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 4,512 4,666 4,967 5,929 6,041 5,453 5,947 6,031 6,134 36.0% 1.7%
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 16,199 15,287 17,203 19,913 20,195 17,399 18,383 18,633 18,631 15.0% 0.0%
Off-Road Residential 1,230 1,194 1,067 1,042 1,038 1,012 976 872 899 -26.9% 3.1%
Off-Road Other Transportation 7,754 6,579 7,402 8,073 8,024 7,522 7,702 7,501 7,600 -2.0% 1.3%
Pipeline Transport 10,118 5,736 8,294 8,395 8,496 7,757 8,744 10,137 10,265 1.4% 1.3%
c. Fugitive Sources 96,880 94,027 98,403 89,138 86,064 76,631 77,139 75,175 74,759 -22.8% -0.6%
Coal Mining 1,561 1,549 1,282 1,497 1,564 1,326 1,360 1,527 1,553 -0.5% 1.7%
Oil and Natural Gas 95,319 92,479 97,121 87,641 84,500 75,305 75,780 73,649 73,206 -23.2% -0.6%
Oil 7,194 8,063 8,188 8,081 8,158 7,763 7,836 8,031 7,948 10.5% -1.0%
Natural Gas 12,888 12,418 11,030 10,225 10,056 9,697 9,713 9,629 9,588 -25.6% -0.4%
Venting 69,971 67,253 71,352 63,355 60,519 51,515 51,315 49,134 48,469 -30.7% -1.4%
Flaring 5,265 4,744 6,552 5,981 5,768 6,329 6,916 6,854 7,202 36.8% 5.1%
d. CO2 Transport and Storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.0% 0.0%
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE 55,396 49,876 52,828 53,503 52,318 49,681 51,499 51,315 51,047 -7.8% -0.5%
a. Mineral Products 10,275 7,826 8,004 8,709 8,852 8,216 9,001 8,404 8,232 -19.9% -2.1%
Cement Production 7,614 6,005 6,185 6,990 7,195 6,713 7,379 6,752 6,747 -11.4% -0.1%
Lime Production 1,750 1,414 1,412 1,388 1,339 1,193 1,312 1,342 1,193 -31.8% -11.1%
Mineral Product Use 911 406 407 331 317 310 310 311 292 -67.9% -6.1%
b. Chemical Industry 9,972 5,718 6,718 6,399 6,218 5,939 5,733 5,783 5,478 -45.1% -5.3%
Ammonia Production 2,705 2,465 2,916 2,419 2,501 2,294 2,538 2,590 2,523 -6.7% -2.6%
Nitric Acid Production 1,070 426 200 242 225 168 192 128 116 -89.2% -9.7%
Adipic Acid Production 2,264 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100.0% 0.0%
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 3,933 2,827 3,602 3,739 3,492 3,477 3,004 3,065 2,840 -27.8% -7.3%
c. Metal Production 19,881 15,855 14,530 14,897 14,105 13,209 14,135 13,634 13,487 -32.2% -1.1%
Iron and Steel Production 10,313 8,982 8,669 9,301 8,553 7,269 8,217 7,811 7,778 -24.6% -0.4%
Aluminium Production 8,297 6,681 5,621 5,448 5,249 5,836 5,774 5,655 5,570 -32.9% -1.5%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 1,271 192 240 148 304 105 144 167 139 -89.1% -16.9%
d. Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3 4,823 7,299 10,433 11,531 11,475 11,266 10,768 10,633 11,104 130.2% 4.4%
e. Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 9,938 12,767 12,634 11,322 11,052 10,392 11,198 12,213 12,076 21.5% -1.1%
f. Other Product Manufacture and Use 507 410 509 645 616 659 663 646 669 31.9% 3.5%
AGRICULTURE 56,242 50,795 53,063 54,157 54,299 56,016 55,061 55,947 55,088 -2.1% -1.5%
a. Enteric Fermentation 34,519 28,312 26,879 27,408 27,352 27,294 27,383 27,086 26,750 -22.5% -1.2%
b. Manure Management 8,653 7,624 7,687 7,868 7,864 7,846 7,883 7,815 7,737 -10.6% -1.0%
c. Agricultural Soils 11,603 13,036 15,872 16,232 16,351 17,783 16,642 18,139 17,680 52.4% -2.5%
Direct Sources 8,868 10,152 12,523 12,745 12,842 14,062 13,121 14,549 14,214 60.3% -2.3%
Indirect Sources 2,736 2,884 3,349 3,486 3,509 3,721 3,521 3,590 3,466 26.7% -3.5%
d. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 45 36 60 53 53 57 37 50 42 -8.4% -17.6%
e. Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1,421 1,788 2,566 2,597 2,678 3,037 3,117 2,857 2,878 102.6% 0.8%
WASTE 24,241 22,349 22,889 23,450 23,521 22,968 23,103 23,357 23,218 -4.2% -0.6%
a. Solid Waste Disposal (Landfills) 20,361 18,440 19,022 19,491 19,612 19,105 19,181 19,477 19,327 -5.1% -0.8%
b. Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 243 271 325 376 381 386 476 475 510 109.8% 7.4%
c. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 2,215 2,334 2,456 2,576 2,541 2,524 2,521 2,486 2,539 14.6% 2.1%
d. Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 339 302 189 171 169 154 145 159 151 -55.6% -5.1%
e. Industrial Wood Waste Landfills 1,083 1,001 897 836 818 799 779 760 691 -36.1% -9.0%
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2022 %
kt CO2 eq
NATIONAL GHG TOTAL 761,492 728,517 745,716 752,631 752,025 686,362 698,442 707,767 702,211 -7.8% -0.8%
OIL AND GAS 195,352 203,656 229,114 228,477 226,149 209,225 215,816 216,745 218,985 12.1% 1.0%
Upstream Oil and Gas 172,043 180,481 208,236 209,005 206,005 191,558 197,891 198,220 200,767 16.7% 1.3%
Natural Gas Production and Processing 75,357 72,168 69,916 64,490 62,475 60,360 61,481 59,971 61,218 -18.8% 2.1%
Conventional Oil Production 48,434 45,151 54,626 51,370 48,940 39,622 39,315 39,223 38,700 -20.1% -1.3%
Oil Sands (Mining, In-situ, Upgrading) 35,797 55,669 73,227 82,411 83,749 81,500 85,989 86,507 88,056 146.0% 1.8%
Oil, Natural Gas and CO2 Transmission 12,453 7,494 10,466 10,735 10,841 10,077 11,105 12,519 12,793 2.7% 2.2%
Downstream Oil and Gas 21,879 21,858 19,584 18,203 18,865 16,389 16,636 17,218 16,886 -22.8% -1.9%
Petroleum Refining 21,879 21,858 19,584 18,203 18,865 16,389 16,636 17,218 16,886 -22.8% -1.9%
Natural Gas Distribution 1,431 1,317 1,294 1,270 1,279 1,279 1,290 1,306 1,332 -6.9% 2.0%
ELECTRICITY 116,595 94,521 74,663 62,451 61,417 53,202 51,251 47,286 44,349 -62.0% -6.2%
TRANSPORT 156,164 164,952 162,205 168,977 169,844 142,874 150,050 156,290 158,831 1.7% 1.6%
Passenger Transport 94,910 96,292 96,566 102,325 103,130 82,722 85,569 90,129 91,517 -3.6% 1.5%
Cars, Light Trucks and Motorcycles 84,516 86,183 85,448 89,891 90,852 75,143 77,600 79,873 79,969 -5.4% 0.1%
Bus, Rail and Aviation 10,394 10,109 11,117 12,434 12,278 7,579 7,969 10,256 11,548 11.1% 12.6%
Freight Transport 47,633 56,183 52,176 51,599 51,615 46,186 49,887 51,791 52,680 10.6% 1.7%
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail 42,269 51,460 48,027 46,831 46,074 40,827 43,153 44,494 44,743 5.9% 0.6%
Aviation and Marine 5,363 4,724 4,149 4,768 5,541 5,360 6,734 7,297 7,938 48.0% 8.8%
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 13,621 12,476 13,464 15,054 15,099 13,965 14,595 14,369 14,633 7.4% 1.8%
HEAVY INDUSTRY 88,021 74,745 79,505 79,761 79,250 74,274 77,695 77,930 76,590 -13.0% -1.7%
Mining 8,081 8,200 8,886 10,739 10,735 10,119 10,943 11,065 11,183 38.4% 1.1%
Smelting and Refining (Non-Ferrous Metals) 14,144 11,041 10,509 9,872 10,005 10,102 9,795 10,112 9,831 -30.5% -2.8%
Pulp and Paper 8,987 6,569 6,422 7,868 8,175 7,251 7,588 7,630 7,199 -19.9% -5.6%
Iron and Steel 16,258 14,203 14,709 16,101 15,001 12,157 13,773 13,130 13,085 -19.5% -0.3%
Cement 13,036 10,117 10,180 11,400 11,481 10,466 11,169 10,650 10,594 -18.7% -0.5%
Lime and Gypsum 3,467 2,652 2,488 2,401 2,284 2,174 2,201 2,601 2,079 -40.0% -20.0%
Chemicals and Fertilizers 24,049 21,964 26,312 21,379 21,569 22,005 22,226 22,743 22,619 -5.9% -0.5%
BUILDINGS 84,931 81,580 85,156 92,220 94,192 88,583 85,257 88,781 83,809 -1.3% -5.6%
Service Industry 39,917 38,101 41,578 48,670 49,786 46,665 44,596 46,393 44,523 11.5% -4.0%
Residential 45,014 43,480 43,578 43,550 44,406 41,919 40,660 42,388 39,286 -12.7% -7.3%
AGRICULTURE 65,630 60,577 65,707 69,046 69,317 70,148 69,210 70,212 69,316 5.6% -1.3%
On Farm Fuel Use 9,388 9,781 12,644 14,889 15,018 14,132 14,149 14,264 14,229 51.6% -0.2%
Crop Production 10,472 12,509 16,123 16,466 16,671 18,479 17,391 18,660 18,240 74.2% -2.3%
Animal Production 45,770 38,287 36,940 37,692 37,628 37,537 37,670 37,287 36,848 -19.5% -1.2%
WASTE 24,241 22,349 22,889 23,451 23,532 22,982 23,126 23,366 23,235 -4.1% -0.6%
Solid Waste 21,686 19,712 20,244 20,704 20,822 20,304 20,460 20,721 20,546 -5.3% -0.8%
Wastewater 2,215 2,334 2,456 2,576 2,541 2,524 2,521 2,486 2,539 14.6% 2.1%
Waste Incineration 339 302 189 171 169 154 145 159 151 -55.6% -5.1%
COAL PRODUCTION 3,003 3,482 3,003 3,130 3,259 2,726 2,792 3,302 3,350 11.5% 1.4%
LIGHT MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND FOREST RESOURCES 27,553 22,655 23,473 25,118 25,065 22,349 23,244 23,856 23,747 -13.8% -0.5%
Light Manufacturing 17,084 14,479 14,691 14,356 14,432 13,372 13,867 14,623 14,801 -13.4% 1.2%
Construction 7,686 6,095 6,681 8,177 7,979 6,642 6,864 6,718 6,533 -15.0% -2.8%
Forest Resources 2,783 2,081 2,102 2,585 2,654 2,334 2,513 2,515 2,413 -13.3% -4.1%
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The federal government recalibrates the methodologies on which the NIR is based every year to align with improvements in international emissions accounting standards. All emissions years in the inventory are adjusted when methodologies are updated.