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Early Estimate of National Emissions

Independent advance data for Canada’s National Inventory Report 

By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date. To provide more timely emissions estimates to inform decision making, 440 Megatonnes–in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting and the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre–has developed an independent Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).

Our first early estimate, covering Canada’s 2021 emissions, was released in February 2023. Our early estimate for 2022 emissions was released on September 28, 2023–eight months ahead of the official National Inventory Report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Going forward, 440 Megatonnes will release our annual EENE each Fall.The EENE estimates emissions by sector, based on economic data and historical trends in energy efficiency, emission intensity, and energy decarbonization. Read more about our methodology here.

In the table below, data from 2005 to 2022 is from ECCC’s official National Inventory Report. Official 2022 data was published on May 2, 2024. 2022 EENE data are based on our independent calculations and were published on September 28, 2023. The percentage change from 2005 to 2022 is calculated using official ECCC data. 

Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change from 2005 % Change from 2021 % 2022 EENE Difference between EENE and NIR (%)
kt CO2 eq
TOTAL 761,492 728,517 745,716 731,323 742,010 752,631 752,025 686,362 698,441 707,767 -7.1% 1.3% 711,571 0.5%
ENERGY 625,613 605,497 616,936 600,250 613,190 621,520 621,887 557,697 568,778 577,148 -7.7% 1.5% 584,877 1.3%
a. Stationary Combustion Sources 338,488 319,102 321,759 316,698 321,486 323,866 325,933 302,467 303,587 306,085 -9.6% 0.8% 312,648 2.1%
Public Electricity and Heat Production 123,663 102,166 83,144 81,549 79,181 70,744 69,431 61,846 60,700 56,426 -54.4% -7.0% 59,072 4.7%
Petroleum Refining Industries 20,013 19,021 16,047 16,418 14,577 14,768 15,611 13,609 13,784 14,170 -29.2% 2.8% 14,238 0.5%
Oil and Gas Extraction 63,277 77,337 98,650 95,458 101,142 107,416 107,684 103,984 107,723 109,198 72.6% 1.4% 112,243 2.8%
Mining 4,347 5,278 4,164 3,853 4,503 5,983 5,970 5,272 6,139 6,154 41.6% 0.2% 6,238 1.4%
Manufacturing Industries 47,753 41,116 44,031 42,499 42,844 42,799 43,208 39,451 40,319 41,106 -13.9% 2.0% 40,901 -0.5%
Iron and Steel 5,511 4,948 5,747 5,606 5,996 6,376 6,056 4,561 5,141 4,888 -11.3% -4.9% 5,042 3.1%
Non-Ferrous Metals 3,831 3,222 3,363 3,441 3,415 2,952 3,435 3,243 3,013 3,228 -15.7% 7.1% 2,901 -10.1%
Chemical 8,252 9,866 12,075 10,732 9,845 9,449 9,637 9,569 9,431 9,203 11.5% -2.4% 9,527 3.5%
Pulp and Paper 8,576 5,902 5,983 5,918 6,369 7,074 7,096 6,507 6,828 6,862 -20.0% 0.5% 6,708 -2.2%
Cement 5,382 4,064 3,929 4,015 4,243 4,315 4,196 3,665 3,686 3,789 -29.6% 2.8% 4,019 6.1%
Other Manufacturing 16,201 13,114 12,935 12,788 12,976 12,633 12,789 11,905 12,219 13,135 -18.9% 7.5% 12,704 -3.3%
Construction 1,444 1,515 1,305 1,294 1,303 1,382 1,441 1,430 1,456 1,589 10.1% 9.2% 1,475 -7.2%
Commercial and Institutional 32,355 28,542 30,400 34,033 35,973 37,126 38,108 35,168 32,950 34,993 8.2% 6.2% 35,655 1.9%
Residential 43,457 41,465 41,058 38,411 38,886 40,466 41,146 38,675 37,421 39,134 -9.9% 4.6% 39,496 0.9%
Agriculture and Forestry 2,182 2,663 2,959 3,183 3,077 3,183 3,335 3,031 3,095 3,316 52.0% 7.1% 3,330 0.4%
b. Transport 190,245 192,367 196,774 195,870 202,322 208,516 209,890 178,600 188,052 195,887 -0.1% 4.2% 193,818 -1.1%
Aviation 7,714 6,680 7,579 7,514 7,930 8,657 8,579 4,745 5,602 7,683 -0.4% 37.1% 7,001 -8.9%
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 7,455 6,423 7,344 7,259 7,699 8,410 8,336 4,561 5,401 7,487 0.4% 38.6% 6,606 -11.8%
Military 259 257 235 255 231 247 242 184 201 196 -24.5% -2.5% 395 101.9%
Road Transportation 122,339 133,001 128,602 127,977 128,857 131,532 131,710 110,818 116,220 120,091 -1.8% 3.3% 118,444 -1.4%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 40,613 37,859 34,442 34,291 33,567 32,973 32,298 24,987 24,148 23,421 -42.3% -3.0% 23,858 1.9%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 40,906 45,095 47,662 50,303 51,589 53,290 55,034 47,193 50,481 53,355 30.4% 5.7% 51,932 -2.7%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 4,617 4,582 4,296 4,362 4,418 4,461 4,524 4,190 4,303 4,057 -12.1% -5.7% 4,276 5.4%
Motorcycles 459 595 838 875 898 922 952 773 765 721 57.2% -5.8% 808 12.0%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 665 739 700 642 613 587 504 310 325 339 -49.1% 4.1% 318 -6.0%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 748 515 587 575 641 719 742 598 720 919 22.8% 27.7% 717 -22.0%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 34,308 43,585 40,009 36,852 37,018 38,449 37,485 32,588 35,287 37,074 8.1% 5.1% 36,328 -2.0%
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 23 33 67 78 114 132 171 178 190 206 785.9% 8.3% 207 0.3%
Railways 6,507 6,390 6,850 6,279 7,169 7,324 7,378 6,846 6,758 6,756 3.8% 0.0% 6,911 2.3%
Marine 4,020 3,698 3,095 3,274 3,459 3,467 4,309 3,842 4,415 4,957 23.3% 12.3% 4,248 -14.3%
Domestic Navigation 3,122 2,848 2,809 2,986 3,203 3,223 4,046 3,607 4,153 4,674 49.7% 12.5% 4,019 -14.0%
Fishing 871 824 146 157 152 159 164 153 181 169 -80.5% -6.5% 122 -28.0%
Military Water-Borne Navigation 27 26 141 131 103 86 99 82 81 114 323.0% 40.5% 107 -6.2%
Other Transportation 49,665 42,598 50,647 50,827 54,907 57,535 57,915 52,348 55,057 56,400 13.6% 2.4% 57,214 1.4%
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 9,852 9,136 11,715 11,768 13,454 14,183 14,120 13,206 13,305 13,225 34.2% -0.6% 13,695 3.6%
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 4,512 4,666 4,967 5,261 5,686 5,929 6,041 5,453 5,947 6,031 33.7% 1.4% 6,070 0.7%
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 16,199 15,287 17,203 16,969 19,037 19,913 20,195 17,399 18,383 18,633 15.0% 1.4% 19,225 3.2%
Off-Road Residential 1,230 1,194 1,067 1,067 1,046 1,042 1,038 1,012 976 872 -29.1% -10.6% 1,092 25.2%
Off-Road Other Transportation 7,754 6,579 7,402 8,030 8,115 8,073 8,024 7,522 7,702 7,501 -3.3% -2.6% 8,363 11.5%
Pipeline Transport 10,118 5,736 8,294 7,732 7,570 8,395 8,496 7,757 8,744 10,137 0.2% 15.9% 8,769 -13.5%
c. Fugitive Sources 96,880 94,027 98,403 87,681 89,382 89,138 86,063 76,630 77,139 75,175 -22.4% -2.5% 78,410 4.3%
Coal Mining 1,560 1,547 1,279 1,413 1,398 1,494 1,561 1,324 1,357 1,524 -2.3% 12.3% 1,369 -10.1%
Oil and Natural Gas 95,320 92,480 97,124 86,268 87,983 87,644 84,502 75,307 75,782 73,651 -22.7% -2.8% 77,041 4.6%
Oil 7,193 8,063 8,188 7,868 7,992 8,080 8,157 7,763 7,836 8,031 11.7% 2.5% 7,993 -0.5%
Natural Gas 12,891 12,420 11,033 10,554 10,244 10,228 10,059 9,699 9,715 9,631 -25.3% -0.9% 10,192 5.8%
Venting 69,971 67,253 71,352 62,414 63,982 63,355 60,519 51,515 51,315 49,134 -29.8% -4.2% 51,799 5.4%
Flaring 5,265 4,744 6,552 5,432 5,766 5,981 5,768 6,329 6,916 6,854 30.2% -0.9% 7,057 3.0%
d. CO2 Transport and Storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 654.3% -0.4% 1 4.8%
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE 55,396 49,876 52,828 53,644 52,300 53,503 52,318 49,681 51,499 51,315 -7.4% -0.4% 49,323 -3.9%
a. Mineral Products 10,275 7,826 8,004 7,878 8,614 8,709 8,852 8,216 9,001 8,404 -18.2% -6.6% 8,955 6.6%
Cement Production 7,614 6,005 6,185 6,114 6,863 6,990 7,195 6,713 7,379 6,752 -11.3% -8.5% 7,387 9.4%
Lime Production 1,750 1,414 1,412 1,376 1,422 1,388 1,339 1,193 1,312 1,342 -23.3% 2.2% 1,268 -5.5%
Mineral Product Use 911 406 407 388 329 331 317 310 310 311 -65.8% 0.4% 300 -3.7%
b. Chemical Industry 9,972 5,718 6,718 6,819 6,324 6,399 6,218 5,939 5,733 5,783 -42.0% 0.9% 5,568 -3.7%
Ammonia Production 2,705 2,465 2,916 2,847 2,622 2,419 2,501 2,294 2,538 2,590 -4.2% 2.1% 2,214 -14.5%
Nitric Acid Production 1,070 426 200 232 218 242 225 168 192 128 -88.0% -33.2% 178 38.8%
Adipic Acid Production 2,264 - - - - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0 0.0%
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 3,933 2,827 3,602 3,739 3,484 3,739 3,492 3,477 3,004 3,065 -22.1% 2.0% 3,177 3.6%
c. Metal Production 19,881 15,855 14,530 15,473 15,144 14,897 14,105 13,209 14,135 13,634 -31.4% -3.5% 13,116 -3.8%
Iron and Steel Production 10,313 8,982 8,669 9,414 9,070 9,301 8,553 7,269 8,217 7,811 -24.3% -4.9% 7,760 -0.7%
Aluminium Production 8,297 6,681 5,621 5,917 5,938 5,448 5,249 5,836 5,774 5,655 -31.8% -2.1% 5,268 -6.9%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 1,271 192 240 142 136 148 304 105 144 167 -86.8% 16.5% 88 -47.4%
d. Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3 4,823 7,299 10,433 10,696 10,524 11,531 11,475 11,266 10,768 10,633 120.5% -1.3% 10,377 -2.4%
e. Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 9,938 12,767 12,634 12,221 11,114 11,322 11,052 10,392 11,198 12,213 22.9% 9.1% 10,617 -13.1%
f. Other Product Manufacture and Use 507 410 509 557 581 645 616 659 663 646 27.4% -2.6% 690 6.8%
AGRICULTURE 56,242 50,795 53,063 53,750 53,008 54,157 54,299 56,016 55,061 55,947 -0.5% 1.6% 54,416 -2.7%
a. Enteric Fermentation 34,519 28,312 26,879 27,105 27,205 27,408 27,352 27,294 27,383 27,086 -21.5% -1.1% 27,372 1.1%
b. Manure Management 8,653 7,624 7,687 7,833 7,857 7,868 7,864 7,846 7,883 7,815 -9.7% -0.9% 7,913 1.3%
c. Agricultural Soils 11,603 13,036 15,872 16,216 15,456 16,232 16,351 17,783 16,642 18,139 56.3% 9.0% 16,169 -10.9%
Direct Sources 8,868 10,152 12,523 12,758 12,117 12,745 12,842 14,062 13,121 14,549 64.1% 10.9% 12,781 -12.2%
Indirect Sources 2,736 2,884 3,349 3,457 3,338 3,486 3,509 3,721 3,521 3,590 31.2% 2.0% 3,388 -5.6%
d. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 45 36 60 52 54 53 53 57 37 50 11.1% 36.0% 41 -18.3%
e. Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1,421 1,788 2,566 2,544 2,437 2,597 2,678 3,037 3,117 2,857 101.0% -8.4% 2,921 2.3%
WASTE 24,241 22,349 22,889 23,679 23,511 23,450 23,521 22,968 23,103 23,357 -3.6% 1.1% 22,954 -1.7%
a. Solid Waste Disposal (Landfills) 20,361 18,440 19,022 19,742 19,632 19,491 19,612 19,105 19,181 19,477 -4.3% 1.5% 19,085 -2.0%
b. Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 243 271 325 328 338 376 381 386 476 475 95.3% -0.2% 456 -3.9%
c. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 2,215 2,334 2,456 2,542 2,504 2,576 2,541 2,524 2,521 2,486 12.2% -1.4% 2,565 3.2%
d. Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 339 302 189 192 182 171 169 154 145 159 -53.2% 9.5% 138 -13.1%
e. Industrial Wood Waste Landfills 1,083 1,001 897 876 855 836 818 799 779 760 -29.8% -2.5% 710 -6.6%
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change from 2005 % Change from 2021 % 2022 EENE Difference between EENE and NIR (%)
kt CO2 eq
NATIONAL GHG TOTAL 761,492 728,517 745,716 731,323 742,010 752,631 752,025 686,362 698,441 707,767 -7.1% 1.3% 711,571 0.5%
OIL AND GAS 195,352 203,656 229,114 214,143 220,722 228,477 226,148 209,225 215,816 216,744 11.0% 0.4% 222,308 2.6%
Upstream Oil and Gas 172,042 180,481 208,235 192,948 201,228 209,005 206,005 191,557 197,890 198,219 15.2% 0.2% 203,398 2.6%
Natural Gas Production and Processing 75,357 72,168 69,916 64,757 63,331 64,490 62,475 60,360 61,481 59,971 -20.4% -2.5% 63,580 6.0%
Conventional Oil Production 48,434 45,151 54,626 47,978 50,661 51,370 48,940 39,622 39,315 39,223 -19.0% -0.2% 36,971 -5.7%
Oil Sands (Mining, In-situ, Upgrading) 35,797 55,669 73,227 70,256 77,351 82,411 83,749 81,500 85,989 86,507 141.7% 0.6% 91,336 5.6%
Oil, Natural Gas and CO2 Transmission 12,453 7,493 10,466 9,958 9,886 10,735 10,840 10,076 11,105 12,519 0.5% 12.7% 11,511 -8.1%
Downstream Oil and Gas 23,310 23,175 20,879 21,195 19,494 19,472 20,143 17,668 17,925 18,524 -20.5% 3.3% 18,910 2.1%
Petroleum Refining 21,879 21,858 19,584 19,948 18,246 18,203 18,865 16,389 16,636 17,218 -21.3% 3.5% 17,628 2.4%
Natural Gas Distribution 1,431 1,317 1,294 1,246 1,247 1,270 1,279 1,279 1,290 1,306 -8.7% 1.3% 1,283 -1.8%
ELECTRICITY 116,595 94,521 74,663 75,001 72,310 62,451 61,417 53,202 51,251 47,286 -59.4% -7.7% 50,376 6.5%
TRANSPORT 156,164 164,952 162,205 162,019 165,023 168,977 169,844 142,874 150,051 156,290 0.1% 4.2% 153,627 -1.7%
Passenger Transport 94,910 96,292 96,565 99,061 100,302 102,325 103,130 82,722 85,569 90,129 -5.0% 5.3% 88,258 -2.1%
Cars, Light Trucks and Motorcycles 84,522 86,192 85,451 87,906 88,635 89,893 90,854 75,144 77,601 79,874 -5.5% 2.9% 78,937 -1.2%
Bus, Rail and Aviation 10,389 10,100 11,115 11,155 11,668 12,432 12,276 7,578 7,968 10,255 -1.3% 28.7% 9,321 -9.1%
Freight Transport 47,633 56,183 52,176 48,573 49,852 51,599 51,615 46,186 49,887 51,792 8.7% 3.8% 49,843 -3.8%
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail 42,269 51,460 48,027 44,225 45,198 46,831 46,074 40,827 43,153 44,494 5.3% 3.1% 43,496 -2.2%
Aviation and Marine 5,363 4,724 4,149 4,348 4,654 4,768 5,541 5,360 6,734 7,298 36.1% 8.4% 6,347 -13.0%
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 13,621 12,476 13,464 14,386 14,869 15,054 15,099 13,965 14,595 14,369 5.5% -1.5% 15,526 8.0%
HEAVY INDUSTRY 88,021 74,745 79,505 76,644 77,374 79,761 79,250 74,274 77,695 77,930 -11.5% 0.3% 75,257 -3.4%
Mining 8,081 8,200 8,886 8,181 8,987 10,739 10,735 10,119 10,943 11,065 36.9% 1.1% 10,596 -4.2%
Smelting and Refining (Non-Ferrous Metals) 14,144 11,041 10,509 10,760 10,864 9,872 10,005 10,102 9,795 10,112 -28.5% 3.2% 9,078 -10.2%
Pulp and Paper 8,987 6,569 6,422 6,510 6,927 7,868 8,175 7,251 7,588 7,630 -15.1% 0.6% 7,454 -2.3%
Iron and Steel 16,258 14,203 14,709 15,296 15,458 16,101 15,001 12,157 13,773 13,130 -19.2% -4.7% 13,179 0.4%
Cement 13,036 10,117 10,180 10,184 11,180 11,400 11,481 10,466 11,169 10,650 -18.3% -4.6% 11,494 7.9%
Lime and Gypsum 3,467 2,652 2,488 2,478 2,569 2,401 2,284 2,174 2,201 2,601 -25.0% 18.2% 2,178 -16.3%
Chemicals and Fertilizers 24,049 21,964 26,312 23,235 21,390 21,379 21,569 22,005 22,226 22,743 -5.4% 2.3% 21,277 -6.4%
BUILDINGS 84,931 81,580 85,156 86,050 88,152 92,220 94,192 88,583 85,257 88,781 4.5% 4.1% 90,139 1.5%
Service Industry 39,917 38,101 41,578 45,153 46,569 48,670 49,786 46,665 44,596 46,393 16.2% 4.0% 47,418 2.2%
Residential 45,014 43,480 43,578 40,897 41,583 43,550 44,406 41,919 40,660 42,388 -5.8% 4.2% 42,721 0.8%
AGRICULTURE 65,630 60,577 65,707 66,731 67,296 69,046 69,317 70,148 69,210 70,212 7.0% 1.4% 69,520 -1.0%
On Farm Fuel Use 9,388 9,781 12,644 12,981 14,288 14,889 15,018 14,132 14,149 14,264 51.9% 0.8% 15,105 5.9%
Crop Production 10,472 12,509 16,123 16,399 15,539 16,466 16,671 18,479 17,391 18,660 78.2% 7.3% 16,838 -9.8%
Animal Production 45,770 38,287 36,940 37,351 37,470 37,692 37,628 37,537 37,670 37,287 -18.5% -1.0% 37,578 0.8%
WASTE 24,241 22,349 22,889 23,679 23,513 23,451 23,532 22,982 23,126 23,366 -3.6% 1.0% 22,977 -1.7%
Solid Waste 21,686 19,712 20,244 20,946 20,827 20,704 20,822 20,304 20,460 20,721 -4.5% 1.3% 20,274 -2.2%
Wastewater 2,215 2,334 2,456 2,542 2,504 2,576 2,541 2,524 2,521 2,486 12.2% -1.4% 2,565 3.2%
Waste Incineration 339 302 189 192 182 171 169 154 145 159 -53.2% 9.5% 138 -13.1%
COAL PRODUCTION 3,003 3,482 3,003 3,249 3,041 3,130 3,259 2,726 2,792 3,302 9.9% 18.3% 2,854 -13.6%
LIGHT MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND FOREST RESOURCES 27,553 22,655 23,473 23,806 24,578 25,118 25,065 22,349 23,244 23,856 -13.4% 2.6% 24,513 2.8%
Light Manufacturing 17,084 14,479 14,691 14,471 14,423 14,356 14,432 13,372 13,867 14,623 -14.4% 5.5% 14,289 -2.3%
Construction 7,686 6,095 6,681 7,288 7,811 8,177 7,979 6,642 6,864 6,718 -12.6% -2.1% 7,991 18.9%
Forest Resources 2,783 2,081 2,102 2,048 2,344 2,585 2,654 2,334 2,513 2,515 -9.6% 0.1% 2,233 -11.2%
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The federal government recalibrates the methodologies on which the NIR is based every year to align with improvements in international emissions accounting standards. All emissions years in the inventory are adjusted when methodologies are updated.