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Early Estimate of National Emissions

Independent advance data for Canada’s National Inventory Report 

By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date. To provide more timely emissions estimates to inform decision making, 440 Megatonnes–in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting and the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre–has developed an independent Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).

Our first early estimate, covering Canada’s 2021 emissions, was released in February 2023. Our early estimate for 2022 emissions was released on September 28, 2023–eight months ahead of the official National Inventory Report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Going forward, 440 Megatonnes will release our annual EENE each Fall.

The EENE estimates emissions by sector, based on economic data and historical trends in energy efficiency, emission intensity, and energy decarbonization. Read more about our methodology here.

In the table below, data from 2005 to 2021 is from ECCC’s official National Inventory Report. 2022 estimates are based on our independent calculations. The percent change from 2005 and 2021 is calculated using the 2022 estimates.

Read our insight about the main findings of our 2022 EENE. 

Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2021 %
kt CO2 eq
TOTAL 731,382 701,489 722,957 705,244 712,254 724,495 723,824 659,283 670,423 684,652 -6.4% 2.1%
ENERGY 599,050 581,325 596,126 576,951 586,450 595,817 596,206 532,382 543,179 560,262 -6.5% 3.1%
a. Stationary Combustion Sources 338,334 318,825 325,850 314,871 318,012 321,021 321,771 298,251 300,316 310,485 -8.2% 3.4%
Public Electricity and Heat Production 123,912 101,885 87,992 81,959 79,501 70,921 69,734 61,998 60,441 60,483 -51.2% 0.1%
Petroleum Refining Industries 20,016 19,024 15,974 16,301 14,509 14,695 15,643 13,180 13,159 13,998 -30.1% 6.4%
Oil and Gas Extraction 62,880 76,814 97,338 94,081 97,647 104,112 104,041 99,184 103,135 106,891 70.0% 3.6%
Mining 4,350 5,822 4,862 4,495 5,095 6,622 6,260 6,032 6,413 6,696 53.9% 4.4%
Manufacturing Industries 47,829 41,191 44,064 42,558 42,780 42,731 43,206 39,439 40,658 40,997 -14.3% 0.8%
Iron and Steel 5,515 4,963 5,763 5,616 6,014 6,395 6,076 4,573 5,168 5,063 -8.2% -2.0%
Non-Ferrous Metals 3,830 3,221 3,361 3,439 3,426 2,961 3,446 3,254 3,197 2,984 -22.1% -6.7%
Chemical 8,256 9,871 12,079 10,799 9,775 9,446 9,642 9,515 9,195 9,355 13.3% 1.7%
Pulp and Paper 8,602 5,921 6,002 6,005 6,400 7,091 7,187 6,501 6,859 6,722 -21.9% -2.0%
Cement 5,404 4,080 3,910 3,927 4,159 4,200 4,042 3,604 3,851 4,017 -25.7% 4.3%
Other Manufacturing 16,221 13,136 12,949 12,772 13,005 12,639 12,814 11,992 12,389 12,856 -20.7% 3.8%
Construction 1,445 1,516 1,306 1,295 1,304 1,383 1,442 1,431 1,461 1,479 2.4% 1.2%
Commercial and Institutional 32,380 28,565 30,420 31,745 34,027 35,465 37,241 35,911 35,423 37,995 17.3% 7.3%
Residential 43,338 41,345 40,932 39,252 40,070 41,906 40,712 38,042 36,541 38,621 -10.9% 5.7%
Agriculture and Forestry 2,184 2,665 2,961 3,184 3,079 3,185 3,492 3,034 3,085 3,325 52.2% 7.8%
b. Transport 190,657 192,669 196,956 196,029 202,486 208,680 210,047 178,731 187,695 193,779 1.6% 3.2%
Aviation 7,721 6,686 7,586 7,520 7,937 8,665 8,586 4,749 5,592 6,997 -9.4% 25.1%
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 7,461 6,429 7,350 7,265 7,706 8,418 8,343 4,565 5,392 6,602 -11.5% 22.4%
Military 259 257 235 255 231 247 243 185 200 395 52.5% 97.5%
Road Transportation 122,855 133,362 128,794 128,150 129,008 131,685 131,861 110,949 116,158 118,444 -3.6% 2.0%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 40,830 37,979 34,487 34,328 33,596 33,001 32,325 25,009 24,151 23,863 -41.6% -1.2%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 41,144 45,251 47,726 50,360 51,632 53,334 55,079 47,234 50,481 51,938 26.2% 2.9%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 4,622 4,591 4,307 4,373 4,429 4,473 4,537 4,202 4,312 4,287 -7.2% -0.6%
Motorcycles 458 594 838 874 897 922 952 773 765 807 76.2% 5.5%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 667 741 702 644 615 588 505 310 323 317 -52.5% -1.9%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 750 516 589 576 642 720 744 600 716 716 -4.5% 0.0%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 34,361 43,658 40,079 36,917 37,083 38,516 37,549 32,643 35,219 36,310 5.7% 3.1%
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 23 33 67 77 114 131 170 178 191 207 800.0% 8.4%
Railways 6,581 6,463 6,929 6,352 7,252 7,409 7,463 6,926 6,838 6,991 6.2% 2.2%
Marine 4,022 3,700 3,097 3,276 3,461 3,470 4,312 3,844 4,403 4,250 5.7% -3.5%
Domestic Navigation 3,124 2,849 2,810 2,988 3,205 3,225 4,049 3,609 4,141 4,022 28.7% -2.9%
Fishing 871 825 146 157 153 159 164 153 181 122 -86.0% -32.6%
Military Water-Borne Navigation 27 26 141 131 103 86 99 82 81 107 296.3% 32.1%
Other Transportation 49,478 42,457 50,550 50,731 54,827 57,451 57,824 52,263 54,704 57,097 15.4% 4.4%
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 9,917 9,201 11,807 11,861 13,586 14,353 14,305 13,373 13,393 13,826 39.4% 3.2%
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 4,497 4,646 4,931 5,234 5,655 5,919 6,035 5,343 5,802 6,055 34.6% 4.4%
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 16,129 15,221 17,146 16,919 18,961 19,819 20,100 17,277 18,106 19,142 18.7% 5.7%
Off-Road Residential 1,221 1,186 1,060 1,060 1,039 1,022 1,005 974 936 1,069 -12.4% 14.2%
Off-Road Other Transportation 7,617 6,479 7,330 7,941 8,031 7,960 7,901 7,552 7,740 8,253 8.3% 6.6%
Pipeline Transport 10,097 5,724 8,277 7,716 7,555 8,378 8,479 7,742 8,727 8,751 -13.3% 0.3%
c. Fugitive Sources 70,059 69,830 73,320 66,051 65,952 66,116 64,388 55,400 55,168 55,997 -20.1% 1.5%
Coal Mining 1,393 1,382 1,145 1,264 1,219 1,336 1,397 1,070 1,179 1,147 -17.7% -2.7%
Oil and Natural Gas 68,665 68,448 72,175 64,787 64,734 64,780 62,991 54,330 53,989 54,850 -20.1% 1.6%
Oil 10,662 12,586 13,371 13,043 13,215 13,397 13,355 12,037 12,163 12,372 16.0% 1.7%
Natural Gas 14,950 14,442 12,964 12,286 11,792 11,879 11,570 10,517 10,428 10,865 -27.3% 4.2%
Venting 37,606 36,446 38,982 33,777 33,707 33,277 32,056 25,223 24,330 24,373 -35.2% 0.2%
Flaring 5,446 4,974 6,859 5,681 6,020 6,227 6,010 6,553 7,067 7,241 33.0% 2.5%
d. CO2 Transport and Storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0%
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE 56,509 50,577 53,425 54,229 52,442 53,868 52,882 50,360 51,943 49,807 -11.9% -4.1%
a. Mineral Products 10,276 7,826 8,004 7,879 8,614 8,703 8,850 8,209 9,000 8,951 -12.9% -0.5%
Cement Production 7,614 6,005 6,185 6,114 6,863 6,990 7,195 6,713 7,380 7,388 -3.0% 0.1%
Lime Production 1,751 1,415 1,412 1,377 1,422 1,388 1,339 1,193 1,312 1,268 -27.6% -3.4%
Mineral Product Use 911 406 407 388 329 325 315 303 308 295 -67.6% -4.2%
b. Chemical Industry 10,372 5,758 6,729 6,833 6,335 6,414 6,232 5,945 5,746 5,578 -46.2% -2.9%
Ammonia Production 2,705 2,465 2,916 2,847 2,622 2,419 2,501 2,294 2,538 2,214 -18.2% -12.8%
Nitric Acid Production 1,203 479 225 261 245 272 253 189 216 200 -83.4% -7.4%
Adipic Acid Production 2,546 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100.0% 0.0%
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 3,918 2,814 3,587 3,724 3,468 3,723 3,478 3,462 2,993 3,164 -19.2% 5.7%
c. Metal Production 20,229 16,031 14,425 15,349 14,602 14,536 13,929 13,122 13,948 12,953 -36.0% -7.1%
Iron and Steel Production 10,311 8,980 8,473 9,217 8,454 8,882 8,327 7,105 7,962 7,536 -26.9% -5.4%
Aluminium Production 8,685 6,866 5,717 5,993 6,012 5,507 5,307 5,915 5,847 5,328 -38.7% -8.9%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 1,233 184 235 140 137 147 296 102 139 88 -92.9% -36.7%
d. Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3 5,117 7,744 11,084 11,346 11,141 12,193 12,153 11,975 11,488 11,054 116.0% -3.8%
e. Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 9,972 12,786 12,641 12,228 11,120 11,322 11,046 10,393 11,039 10,520 5.5% -4.7%
f. Other Product Manufacture and Use 544 431 541 595 630 700 672 716 721 752 38.2% 4.3%
AGRICULTURE 54,147 49,518 52,277 52,948 52,088 53,488 53,618 55,491 54,244 53,592 -1.0% -1.2%
a. Enteric Fermentation 30,821 25,278 23,999 24,201 24,290 24,471 24,422 24,370 24,449 24,439 -20.7% 0.0%
b. Manure Management 8,717 7,647 7,682 7,819 7,836 7,845 7,835 7,814 7,845 7,873 -9.7% 0.4%
c. Agricultural Soils 13,146 14,771 17,974 18,335 17,474 18,525 18,633 20,218 18,798 18,321 39.4% -2.5%
Direct Sources 10,068 11,526 14,206 14,446 13,720 14,607 14,691 16,037 14,845 14,516 44.2% -2.2%
Indirect Sources 3,077 3,244 3,768 3,889 3,754 3,919 3,942 4,180 3,953 3,805 23.7% -3.7%
d. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 43 34 56 49 51 50 50 53 35 39 -9.3% 11.4%
e. Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1,421 1,788 2,566 2,544 2,437 2,597 2,678 3,037 3,117 2,921 105.6% -6.3%
WASTE 21,675 20,070 21,128 21,116 21,274 21,322 21,118 21,050 21,057 20,990 -3.2% -0.3%
a. Solid Waste Disposal (Landfills) 18,205 16,516 17,135 17,018 17,290 17,270 17,165 17,141 17,238 17,140 -5.9% -0.6%
b. Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 243 265 314 318 328 360 364 358 358 370 52.3% 3.4%
c. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 1,914 2,082 2,680 2,795 2,702 2,767 2,683 2,674 2,613 2,701 41.1% 3.4%
d. Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 346 312 198 203 191 180 176 162 152 146 -57.8% -3.9%
e. Industrial Wood Waste Landfills 967 894 801 782 764 746 730 714 696 634 -34.4% -8.9%
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2021 %
kt CO2 eq
NATIONAL GHG TOTAL 731,382 701,489 722,958 705,244 712,255 724,496 723,824 659,283 670,424 684,652 -6.4% 2.1%
OIL AND GAS 168,335 179,321 203,055 191,458 194,021 202,493 201,318 183,355 189,153 194,344 15.5% 2.7%
Upstream Oil and Gas 145,313 156,286 182,383 170,514 174,729 183,228 181,302 166,248 172,011 176,159 21.2% 2.4%
Natural Gas Production and Processing 65,014 62,468 60,646 56,644 53,767 55,938 53,968 49,267 49,959 52,553 -19.2% 5.2%
Conventional Oil Production 33,011 32,333 39,196 34,860 35,093 35,449 33,783 26,404 26,023 26,203 -20.6% 0.7%
Oil Sands (Mining, In-situ, Upgrading) 35,118 54,200 72,334 69,310 76,248 81,378 82,982 80,767 85,213 86,356 145.9% 1.3%
Oil, Natural Gas and CO2 Transmission 12,171 7,284 10,207 9,700 9,620 10,464 10,569 9,810 10,816 11,047 -9.2% 2.1%
Downstream Oil and Gas 23,022 23,036 20,672 20,944 19,292 19,265 20,016 17,107 17,142 18,185 -21.0% 6.1%
Petroleum Refining 21,732 21,850 19,502 19,823 18,170 18,123 18,865 15,957 15,975 16,930 -22.1% 6.0%
Natural Gas Distribution 1,290 1,186 1,170 1,121 1,122 1,142 1,151 1,150 1,168 1,255 -2.7% 7.4%
ELECTRICITY 116,799 94,237 79,007 74,593 72,629 62,623 61,752 54,179 51,673 51,850 -55.6% 0.3%
TRANSPORT 156,789 165,504 162,591 162,365 165,371 169,317 170,163 143,220 150,115 153,634 -2.0% 2.3%
Passenger Transport 94,602 95,641 95,544 98,061 99,325 101,217 101,941 82,802 86,053 88,373 -6.6% 2.7%
Cars, Light Trucks and Motorcycles 85,072 86,583 85,673 88,113 88,823 90,083 91,044 75,328 77,693 79,022 -7.1% 1.7%
Bus, Rail and Aviation 9,530 9,057 9,872 9,948 10,502 11,134 10,896 7,475 8,360 9,351 -1.9% 11.9%
Freight Transport 48,853 57,552 53,726 50,069 51,321 53,199 53,282 46,548 49,584 49,883 2.1% 0.6%
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail 42,569 51,793 48,316 44,468 45,462 47,119 46,394 41,172 43,435 43,535 2.3% 0.2%
Aviation and Marine 6,283 5,759 5,410 5,601 5,859 6,080 6,888 5,376 6,149 6,348 1.0% 3.2%
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 13,334 12,311 13,320 14,235 14,725 14,901 14,941 13,870 14,478 15,378 15.3% 6.2%
HEAVY INDUSTRY 88,937 75,672 80,540 77,962 77,314 79,563 78,788 73,576 76,813 75,450 -15.2% -1.8%
Mining 8,076 8,804 9,483 8,702 9,559 10,987 10,466 10,450 10,714 11,038 36.7% 3.0%
Smelting and Refining (Non-Ferrous Metals) 14,491 11,215 10,597 10,831 10,949 9,934 10,063 10,187 10,035 9,215 -36.4% -8.2%
Pulp and Paper 9,038 6,584 6,437 6,596 6,955 7,874 8,260 7,006 7,614 7,468 -17.4% -1.9%
Iron and Steel 16,219 14,212 14,526 15,106 14,858 15,697 14,794 12,006 13,529 12,975 -20.0% -4.1%
Cement 13,058 10,133 10,162 10,096 11,096 11,284 11,328 10,405 11,315 11,493 -12.0% 1.6%
Lime and Gypsum 3,473 2,659 2,486 2,475 2,567 2,396 2,286 2,175 2,198 2,188 -37.0% -0.5%
Chemicals and Fertilizers 24,581 22,065 26,850 24,154 21,331 21,389 21,592 21,347 21,407 21,073 -14.3% -1.6%
BUILDINGS 84,849 81,505 85,294 84,855 87,710 92,368 93,274 89,118 87,170 92,279 8.8% 5.9%
Service Industry 40,075 38,239 41,885 43,175 44,951 47,362 49,282 47,810 47,367 50,216 25.3% 6.0%
Residential 44,774 43,266 43,409 41,679 42,759 45,006 43,992 41,308 39,802 42,062 -6.1% 5.7%
AGRICULTURE 63,607 59,369 65,017 66,024 66,507 68,537 68,963 69,778 68,517 68,802 8.2% 0.4%
On Farm Fuel Use 9,460 9,851 12,740 13,076 14,419 15,049 15,345 14,287 14,273 15,210 60.8% 6.6%
Crop Production 11,687 13,951 17,931 18,221 17,300 18,529 18,738 20,712 19,355 18,682 59.9% -3.5%
Animal Production 42,460 35,566 34,346 34,727 34,787 34,959 34,879 34,779 34,888 34,910 -17.8% 0.1%
WASTE 21,675 20,070 21,128 21,116 21,276 21,323 21,131 21,065 21,083 21,014 -3.0% -0.3%
Solid Waste 19,415 17,676 18,250 18,118 18,383 18,377 18,272 18,229 18,318 18,167 -6.4% -0.8%
Wastewater 1,914 2,082 2,680 2,795 2,702 2,767 2,683 2,674 2,613 2,701 41.1% 3.4%
Waste Incineration 346 312 198 203 191 180 176 162 152 146 -57.8% -3.9%
COAL PRODUCTION 2,796 3,166 2,791 3,031 2,830 3,148 3,353 2,581 2,602 2,606 -6.8% 0.2%
LIGHT MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND FOREST RESOURCES 27,594 22,645 23,534 23,841 24,597 25,122 25,083 22,411 23,299 24,673 -10.6% 5.9%
Light Manufacturing 17,147 14,483 14,772 14,527 14,470 14,388 14,479 13,477 14,077 14,451 -15.7% 2.7%
Construction 7,669 6,085 6,664 7,269 7,781 8,139 7,937 6,586 6,755 7,967 3.9% 17.9%
Forest Resources 2,779 2,078 2,099 2,046 2,346 2,596 2,666 2,348 2,466 2,256 -18.8% -8.5%
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The federal government recalibrates the methodologies on which the NIR is based every year to align with improvements in international emissions accounting standards. All emissions years in the inventory are adjusted when methodologies are updated.

* 2022 data are preliminary estimates by the Canadian Climate Institute.