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Early Estimate of National Emissions

Independent advance data for Canada’s National Inventory Report

By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date. To provide more timely emissions estimates to inform decision making, 440 Megatonnes–in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting–has developed an independent Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).

440 Megatonnes releases our annual EENE each September, seven months ahead of the official National Inventory Report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).The EENE estimates emissions by sector, based on economic data and historical trends in energy efficiency, emission intensity, and energy decarbonization. Read more about our methodology here.

In the table below, data from 2005 to 2023 is from ECCC’s official National Inventory Report. 2024 estimates are based on our independent calculations. The percentage change from 2005 to 2024 is calculated using the 2024 estimate.

Read our insight about the main findings of our 2024 EENE.

Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2023 %
kt CO2 eq
TOTAL 758,704 728,011 742,028 747,051 747,308 682,283 693,574 699,899 693,912 694,337 -8.5% 0.1%
ENERGY 622,820 604,583 612,557 614,868 615,893 552,020 562,372 568,465 562,245 563,276 -9.6% 0.2%
a. Stationary Combustion Sources 334,942 317,424 318,042 318,694 322,372 299,257 300,632 303,574 298,331 300,205 -10.4% 0.6%
Public Electricity and Heat Production 122,928 102,364 82,959 70,940 69,636 62,276 61,608 58,104 58,196 57,626 -53.1% -1.0%
Petroleum Refining Industries 18,522 18,309 14,678 13,333 15,271 13,516 14,078 14,570 14,151 14,502 -21.7% 2.5%
Oil and Gas Extraction 63,178 77,101 97,609 105,136 105,754 101,331 104,985 106,284 107,218 111,084 75.8% 3.6%
Mining 4,349 5,278 4,149 5,983 5,992 5,212 5,824 5,808 5,460 5,334 22.7% -2.3%
Manufacturing Industries 46,840 40,517 43,376 41,526 42,130 39,094 39,668 40,337 40,380 39,964 -14.7% -1.0%
Iron and Steel 5,064 4,395 5,122 5,207 5,006 4,289 4,816 4,521 4,573 4,582 -9.5% 0.2%
Non-Ferrous Metals 3,791 3,207 3,347 2,952 3,435 3,243 3,013 3,169 3,077 3,023 -20.3% -1.7%
Chemical 8,237 9,866 12,075 9,347 9,637 9,569 9,431 9,254 9,313 9,441 14.6% 1.4%
Pulp and Paper 8,576 5,902 5,983 7,074 7,096 6,408 6,729 6,813 6,982 6,634 -22.6% -5.0%
Cement 5,046 4,034 3,914 4,211 4,167 3,679 3,544 3,634 3,543 3,476 -31.1% -1.9%
Other Manufacturing 16,125 13,115 12,935 12,734 12,789 11,906 12,134 12,946 12,893 12,807 -20.6% -0.7%
Construction 1,444 1,515 1,305 1,382 1,441 1,409 1,417 1,560 1,511 1,513 4.8% 0.1%
Commercial and Institutional 32,383 28,568 30,336 37,148 38,130 35,189 32,976 35,016 33,150 32,204 -0.6% -2.9%
Residential 43,118 41,110 40,672 40,062 40,682 38,200 36,902 38,581 35,005 34,635 -19.7% -1.1%
Agriculture and Forestry 2,182 2,663 2,957 3,183 3,335 3,031 3,173 3,314 3,260 3,342 53.2% 2.5%
b. Transport 190,308 192,443 196,886 208,613 209,151 177,962 186,792 194,641 195,399 195,548 2.8% 0.1%
Aviation 7,714 6,680 7,579 8,657 8,579 4,745 5,602 7,656 8,365 8,685 12.6% 3.8%
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 7,455 6,423 7,344 8,410 8,336 4,561 5,401 7,461 8,165 8,485 13.8% 3.9%
Military 259 257 235 247 242 184 201 195 199 199 -23.1% 0.0%
Road Transportation 122,343 133,359 129,172 132,211 132,381 111,558 117,062 121,240 121,730 121,244 -0.9% -0.4%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 40,615 37,865 34,451 31,961 31,254 24,483 25,332 25,661 25,413 25,291 -37.7% -0.5%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 40,908 45,103 47,676 54,259 56,029 47,803 49,517 51,686 53,733 53,468 30.7% -0.5%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 4,617 4,582 4,298 4,540 4,604 4,245 4,224 3,934 4,083 3,978 -13.8% -2.6%
Motorcycles 459 595 838 931 964 760 812 763 788 771 68.1% -2.2%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 665 739 700 456 424 311 333 362 330 338 -49.1% 2.6%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 748 527 615 764 789 640 770 980 936 958 28.0% 2.3%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 34,308 43,916 40,527 39,191 38,177 33,166 35,917 37,681 36,286 36,282 5.8% 0.0%
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 23 33 68 108 140 150 157 173 161 157 574.7% -2.5%
Railways 6,507 5,985 6,174 6,460 6,508 6,022 5,856 5,813 5,937 5,770 -11.3% -2.8%
Marine 4,082 3,808 3,270 3,654 3,660 3,256 3,213 3,593 3,737 3,904 -4.4% 4.5%
Domestic Navigation 3,184 2,957 2,949 3,353 3,346 2,968 2,888 3,304 3,463 3,627 13.9% 4.7%
Fishing 871 824 159 190 185 180 199 176 164 165 -81.1% 0.2%
Military Water-Borne Navigation 27 26 162 111 129 107 127 114 110 112 317.0% 2.4%
Other Transportation 49,662 42,610 50,691 57,632 58,024 52,382 55,059 56,339 55,629 55,945 12.7% 0.6%
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 9,865 9,149 11,745 14,200 14,125 13,203 13,299 13,137 13,194 13,334 35.2% 1.1%
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 4,514 4,697 5,045 6,077 6,193 5,608 6,115 6,214 6,322 6,406 41.9% 1.3%
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 16,197 15,303 17,209 19,963 20,272 17,510 18,499 18,578 18,229 17,983 11.0% -1.4%
Off-Road Residential 1,230 1,194 1,065 1,034 1,030 974 924 847 841 818 -33.5% -2.6%
Off-Road Other Transportation 7,737 6,531 7,334 7,962 7,908 7,328 7,479 7,426 7,356 7,521 -2.8% 2.2%
Pipeline Transport 10,118 5,736 8,294 8,395 8,496 7,757 8,744 10,137 9,688 9,884 -2.3% 2.0%
c. Fugitive Sources 97,569 94,716 97,629 87,561 84,312 74,801 74,949 70,250 68,515 67,523 -30.8% -1.4%
Coal Mining 1,551 1,548 1,282 1,577 1,627 1,381 1,434 1,391 1,644 1,396 -10.0% -15.1%
Oil and Natural Gas 96,018 93,168 96,347 85,983 82,685 73,419 73,515 68,859 66,871 66,127 -31.1% -1.1%
Oil 7,182 8,057 8,178 8,069 8,152 7,754 7,830 7,975 8,033 8,133 13.2% 1.2%
Natural Gas 13,121 12,427 10,093 9,057 8,817 8,616 8,428 8,137 8,076 7,947 -39.4% -1.6%
Venting 70,446 67,931 71,506 62,854 59,919 50,673 50,262 45,709 43,233 42,362 -39.9% -2.0%
Flaring 5,270 4,754 6,570 6,004 5,797 6,377 6,994 7,038 7,529 7,687 45.8% 2.1%
d. CO2 Transport and Storage 0 0 0 0 58 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE 56,032 50,616 53,703 54,719 53,737 51,414 53,217 52,522 53,530 53,168 -5.1% -0.7%
a. Mineral Products 10,275 7,885 8,065 8,679 8,852 8,214 9,011 8,408 8,846 8,788 -14.5% -0.7%
Cement Production 7,614 6,005 6,185 6,990 7,195 6,713 7,385 6,752 7,300 7,052 -7.4% -3.4%
Lime Production 1,835 1,473 1,473 1,359 1,339 1,190 1,312 1,342 1,245 1,452 -20.9% 16.6%
Mineral Product Use 827 406 407 331 317 311 314 314 301 284 -65.7% -5.6%
b. Chemical Industry 9,972 5,718 6,706 6,353 6,198 5,927 5,715 5,741 5,596 5,595 -43.9% 0.0%
Ammonia Production 2,705 2,465 2,916 2,419 2,501 2,294 2,538 2,590 2,414 2,434 -10.0% 0.8%
Nitric Acid Production 1,070 426 200 242 225 168 192 128 133 101 -90.6% -24.1%
Adipic Acid Production 2,264 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100.0% 0.0%
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 3,933 2,827 3,589 3,692 3,472 3,465 2,985 3,023 3,050 3,059 -22.2% 0.3%
c. Metal Production 20,517 16,425 15,125 16,054 15,135 14,082 15,406 14,820 15,848 15,385 -25.0% -2.9%
Iron and Steel Production 10,796 9,533 9,291 10,465 9,595 8,141 9,488 8,997 9,511 9,386 -13.1% -1.3%
Aluminium Production 8,297 6,681 5,621 5,448 5,249 5,836 5,774 5,655 6,090 5,768 -30.5% -5.3%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 1,424 210 212 141 291 105 144 167 247 232 -83.7% -5.9%
d. Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3 4,823 7,299 10,409 11,487 11,427 11,221 10,726 10,591 10,289 10,384 115.3% 0.9%
e. Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 9,938 12,879 12,890 11,501 11,509 11,312 11,696 12,354 12,306 12,374 24.5% 0.6%
f. Other Product Manufacture and Use 507 410 509 645 616 659 663 608 645 642 26.7% -0.5%
AGRICULTURE 56,286 50,819 53,054 54,146 54,287 55,986 55,109 55,912 55,150 54,906 -2.5% -0.4%
a. Enteric Fermentation 34,519 28,312 26,879 27,408 27,352 27,294 27,383 27,086 26,461 26,038 -24.6% -1.6%
b. Manure Management 8,653 7,624 7,687 7,868 7,864 7,846 7,883 7,815 7,724 7,593 -12.2% -1.7%
c. Agricultural Soils 11,647 13,059 15,862 16,221 16,339 17,753 16,689 18,103 17,828 18,052 55.0% 1.3%
Direct Sources 8,911 10,176 12,513 12,734 12,830 14,032 13,154 14,513 14,123 14,335 60.9% 1.5%
Indirect Sources 2,736 2,884 3,349 3,486 3,509 3,721 3,534 3,590 3,705 3,717 35.9% 0.3%
d. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 45 36 60 53 53 57 38 50 46 50 9.4% 6.9%
e. Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1,421 1,788 2,566 2,597 2,678 3,037 3,117 2,857 3,091 3,173 123.3% 2.7%
WASTE 23,567 21,992 22,714 23,319 23,391 22,863 22,875 23,001 22,987 22,988 -2.5% 0.0%
a. Landfills 20,760 18,992 19,633 20,078 20,189 19,692 19,624 19,729 19,701 19,615 -5.5% -0.4%
b. Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 243 271 325 376 379 384 504 504 503 533 119.0% 6.1%
c. Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 345 305 198 170 169 154 145 166 156 155 -55.0% -0.4%
d. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 2,218 2,425 2,559 2,693 2,655 2,633 2,601 2,602 2,628 2,684 21.0% 2.1%
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2023 %
kt CO2 eq
NATIONAL GHG TOTAL 758,704 728,011 742,028 747,051 747,308 682,283 693,574 699,899 693,912 694,337 -8.5% 0.1%
OIL AND GAS 194,463 203,428 226,037 223,114 222,353 204,447 211,073 209,400 207,955 211,869 9.0% 1.9%
Upstream Oil and Gas 172,426 180,945 206,776 205,512 202,845 187,360 193,331 191,024 189,850 193,445 12.2% 1.9%
Natural Gas Production and Processing 75,025 72,324 68,432 62,004 60,396 57,925 58,971 54,470 52,268 52,571 -29.9% 0.6%
Conventional Oil Production 48,355 45,079 54,323 50,968 48,564 39,275 38,771 38,404 37,980 38,087 -21.2% 0.3%
Oil Sands (Mining, In-situ, Upgrading) 36,593 56,049 74,188 82,572 83,939 81,200 85,713 86,863 88,786 91,823 150.9% 3.4%
Oil, Natural Gas and CO2 Transmission 12,453 7,494 9,832 9,968 9,947 8,961 9,875 11,287 10,816 10,963 -12.0% 1.4%
Downstream Oil and Gas 22,037 22,482 19,261 17,602 19,507 17,086 17,742 18,376 18,106 18,424 -16.4% 1.8%
Petroleum Refining 20,379 21,166 18,223 16,785 18,484 16,082 16,721 17,436 17,162 17,482 -14.2% 1.9%
Natural Gas Distribution 1,658 1,317 1,038 817 1,023 1,004 1,021 940 944 943 -43.2% -0.1%
ELECTRICITY 115,899 94,719 74,479 62,648 61,623 53,846 52,475 48,980 48,829 47,922 -58.7% -1.9%
TRANSPORT 156,216 164,999 162,259 168,946 168,952 142,059 148,608 155,105 156,587 156,479 0.2% -0.1%
Passenger Transport 94,905 96,297 96,569 102,140 102,989 82,784 85,818 90,736 93,967 93,723 -1.2% -0.3%
Cars, Light Trucks and Motorcycles 84,504 86,198 85,477 89,717 90,731 75,231 77,875 80,521 82,256 81,768 -3.2% -0.6%
Bus, Rail and Aviation 10,401 10,099 11,092 12,423 12,258 7,553 7,944 10,215 11,711 11,955 14.9% 2.1%
Freight Transport 47,696 56,214 52,172 51,628 50,725 45,277 48,179 49,788 48,007 48,012 0.7% 0.0%
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail 42,261 51,393 47,882 46,753 45,942 40,605 42,763 43,997 42,991 42,702 1.0% -0.7%
Aviation and Marine 5,435 4,821 4,290 4,875 4,783 4,672 5,416 5,791 5,016 5,309 -2.3% 5.8%
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 13,614 12,487 13,518 15,179 15,239 13,998 14,611 14,582 14,613 14,745 8.3% 0.9%
HEAVY INDUSTRY 87,787 74,872 79,671 79,656 79,339 75,433 78,120 78,107 78,336 77,887 -11.3% -0.6%
Mining 8,080 8,189 8,819 10,764 10,765 10,054 10,627 10,774 9,344 9,544 18.1% 2.1%
Smelting and Refining (Non-Ferrous Metals) 14,257 11,156 10,717 10,044 10,147 10,241 9,929 10,218 10,415 10,090 -29.2% -3.1%
Pulp and Paper 8,987 6,568 6,421 7,867 8,180 7,150 7,387 7,585 7,782 7,384 -17.8% -5.1%
Iron and Steel 16,253 14,197 14,700 16,085 14,985 12,756 14,711 13,904 14,468 14,336 -11.8% -0.9%
Cement 12,700 10,087 10,165 11,295 11,452 10,479 11,031 10,492 10,938 10,619 -16.4% -2.9%
Lime and Gypsum 3,476 2,711 2,547 2,371 2,281 2,170 2,201 2,479 2,212 2,611 -24.9% 18.0%
Chemicals and Fertilizers 24,035 21,964 26,302 21,230 21,530 22,583 22,235 22,654 23,176 23,303 -3.0% 0.5%
BUILDINGS 84,620 81,251 84,709 91,853 93,770 88,156 84,796 88,289 82,651 81,694 -3.5% -1.2%
Service Industry 39,945 38,126 41,517 48,709 49,830 46,712 44,653 46,452 44,340 43,634 9.2% -1.6%
Residential 44,675 43,125 43,192 43,144 43,939 41,444 40,143 41,836 38,310 38,060 -14.8% -0.7%
AGRICULTURE 65,682 60,608 65,719 69,046 69,307 70,115 69,330 70,091 69,388 69,471 5.8% 0.1%
On Farm Fuel Use 9,397 9,790 12,665 14,900 15,020 14,129 14,221 14,179 14,238 14,565 55.0% 2.3%
Crop Production 10,535 12,551 16,133 16,475 16,679 18,468 17,459 18,645 18,636 18,982 80.2% 1.9%
Animal Production 45,750 38,268 36,921 37,672 37,608 37,517 37,650 37,267 36,514 35,924 -21.5% -1.6%
WASTE 23,567 21,992 22,714 23,319 23,403 22,877 22,898 23,010 23,015 23,018 -2.3% 0.0%
Solid Waste 21,004 19,263 19,957 20,456 20,579 20,090 20,152 20,242 20,231 20,179 -3.9% -0.3%
Wastewater 2,218 2,425 2,559 2,693 2,655 2,633 2,601 2,602 2,628 2,684 21.0% 2.1%
Waste Incineration 345 305 198 170 169 154 145 166 156 155 -55.0% -0.4%
COAL PRODUCTION 2,997 3,479 2,961 3,214 3,454 2,991 3,127 3,197 3,610 3,133 4.5% -13.2%
LIGHT MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND FOREST RESOURCES 27,473 22,663 23,480 25,255 25,108 22,359 23,147 23,720 23,542 22,864 -16.8% -2.9%
Light Manufacturing 17,002 14,477 14,676 14,455 14,429 13,361 13,757 14,501 14,591 14,176 -16.6% -2.8%
Construction 7,682 6,101 6,695 8,209 8,023 6,664 6,878 6,709 6,502 6,304 -17.9% -3.1%
Forest Resources 2,789 2,085 2,109 2,591 2,656 2,334 2,512 2,510 2,448 2,385 -14.5% -2.6%
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The federal government recalibrates the methodologies on which the NIR is based every year to align with improvements in international emissions accounting standards. All emissions years in the inventory are adjusted when methodologies are updated.

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