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Early Estimate of National Emissions

Independent advance data for Canada’s National Inventory Report

By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date. To provide more timely emissions estimates to inform decision making, 440 Megatonnes–in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting–has developed an independent Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).

440 Megatonnes releases our annual EENE each September, seven months ahead of the official National Inventory Report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The EENE estimates emissions by sector, based on economic data and historical trends in energy efficiency, emission intensity, and energy decarbonization. Read more about our methodology here.

In the table below, data from 2005 to 2024 are from ECCC’s official National Inventory Report. Data for 2025 are estimates from our independent calculations. The percentage change from 2005 to 2025 is calculated using the 2025 estimate.

Read our insight about the main findings of our 2025 EENE.

Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2024 %
kt CO2 eq
TOTAL 763,017 732,333 742,437 747,050 680,925 691,321 695,853 686,881 684,704 690,865 -9.5% 0.9%
ENERGY 625,928 607,711 612,388 614,695 549,091 558,436 563,317 553,732 552,485 559,670 -10.6% 1.3%
a. Stationary Combustion Sources 335,886 318,301 317,540 321,012 299,471 300,382 303,243 298,399 297,536 305,913 -8.9% 2.8%
Public Electricity and Heat Production 122,963 102,330 82,944 69,632 62,274 61,608 58,122 59,021 57,481 59,721 -51.4% 3.9%
Petroleum Refining Industries 20,015 19,838 14,705 13,980 13,807 14,045 14,597 14,427 14,632 14,562 -27.2% -0.5%
Oil and Gas Extraction 62,629 76,430 97,035 105,305 100,559 104,274 104,936 105,991 108,571 110,678 76.7% 1.9%
Coal Production 363 674 479 551 449 515 518 563 529 526 44.8% -0.5%
Biofuel Manufacturing 153 747 934 957 840 799 765 791 808 865 466.6% 7.0%
Mining 3,924 4,587 3,658 5,378 4,912 5,281 5,768 5,203 5,294 5,195 32.4% -1.9%
Manufacturing Industries 46,662 39,785 42,457 41,567 38,715 39,317 40,023 39,349 37,993 37,481 -19.7% -1.3%
Iron and Steel 5,025 4,395 5,120 5,006 4,289 4,816 4,521 4,526 4,603 4,622 -8.0% 0.4%
Non-Ferrous Metals 3,805 3,222 3,363 3,435 3,243 3,013 3,169 3,109 2,929 2,911 -23.5% -0.6%
Chemical 8,167 9,257 11,356 9,361 9,409 9,213 9,121 9,348 9,369 9,240 13.1% -1.4%
Pulp and Paper 8,576 5,902 5,983 7,096 6,408 6,729 6,763 6,486 5,787 5,422 -36.8% -6.3%
Cement 5,046 4,034 3,914 4,167 3,679 3,544 3,634 3,530 3,329 3,356 -33.5% 0.8%
Other Manufacturing 16,043 12,977 12,720 12,502 11,687 12,001 12,814 12,349 11,975 11,931 -25.6% -0.4%
Construction 1,444 1,515 1,305 1,441 1,409 1,417 1,560 1,513 1,558 1,561 8.1% 0.2%
Commercial and Institutional 32,386 28,568 30,336 38,130 35,189 32,976 35,010 33,263 32,448 34,989 8.0% 7.8%
Residential 43,167 41,164 40,731 40,736 38,252 36,949 38,631 35,033 34,787 36,724 -14.9% 5.6%
Agriculture and Forestry 2,182 2,663 2,957 3,335 3,065 3,200 3,314 3,245 3,436 3,611 65.5% 5.1%
b. Transport 190,292 193,070 195,780 208,211 176,016 184,058 191,808 189,725 188,942 189,076 -0.6% 0.1%
Aviation 7,714 6,680 7,579 8,578 4,744 5,601 7,655 8,385 8,069 8,137 5.5% 0.8%
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 7,455 6,423 7,344 8,336 4,560 5,400 7,460 8,185 7,850 7,920 6.2% 0.9%
Military 259 257 235 242 184 201 195 199 219 217 -16.3% -0.9%
Road Transportation 122,452 133,992 128,590 132,405 110,994 116,205 120,349 119,002 118,375 119,247 -2.6% 0.7%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 40,678 38,046 34,070 31,075 24,203 24,949 25,293 24,747 23,575 23,456 -42.3% -0.5%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 40,951 45,277 47,168 55,757 47,338 48,878 50,962 52,453 53,413 54,460 33.0% 2.0%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 4,622 4,600 4,250 4,581 4,207 4,173 3,879 3,992 4,075 3,962 -14.3% -2.8%
Motorcycles 460 598 829 959 752 800 749 765 781 809 75.8% 3.5%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 665 744 708 430 313 334 365 314 295 285 -57.1% -3.3%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 748 532 621 798 642 771 982 910 874 881 17.7% 0.8%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 34,306 44,161 40,877 38,665 33,390 36,141 37,947 35,661 35,204 35,232 2.7% 0.1%
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 23 33 68 140 150 157 173 160 159 162 595.8% 1.9%
Railways 6,506 6,016 6,206 6,534 6,016 5,844 5,792 5,807 5,847 5,452 -16.2% -6.7%
Marine 3,961 3,710 3,559 4,047 3,764 2,924 3,328 3,315 3,424 3,368 -15.0% -1.7%
Domestic Navigation 3,063 2,859 3,357 3,829 3,538 2,776 3,188 3,190 3,305 3,285 7.3% -0.6%
Fishing 871 825 193 203 205 127 117 109 104 68 -92.2% -35.3%
Military Water-Borne Navigation 27 26 10 15 21 21 22 16 15 15 -45.8% -1.6%
Other Transportation 49,658 42,672 49,846 56,647 50,498 53,484 54,685 53,217 53,227 52,872 6.5% -0.7%
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 9,864 9,171 11,632 13,559 12,307 12,715 12,563 12,415 11,868 13,017 32.0% 9.7%
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 4,515 4,709 4,803 5,892 5,287 5,792 5,863 5,869 6,020 6,097 35.1% 1.3%
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 16,197 15,320 17,067 20,136 17,247 18,222 18,291 17,498 17,507 15,605 -3.7% -10.9%
Off-Road Residential 1,228 1,193 1,053 1,025 965 914 840 828 756 756 -38.4% 0.0%
Off-Road Other Transportation 7,736 6,543 6,998 7,540 6,935 7,096 6,989 6,871 6,777 6,810 -12.0% 0.5%
Pipeline Transport 10,118 5,736 8,294 8,496 7,757 8,744 10,137 9,736 10,299 10,587 4.6% 2.8%
c. Fugitive Sources 99,750 96,340 99,067 85,472 73,604 73,996 68,266 65,608 66,007 64,682 -35.2% -2.0%
Coal Mining 1,551 1,548 1,282 1,627 1,381 1,434 1,391 1,644 1,370 1,393 -10.2% 1.7%
Oil and Natural Gas 98,200 94,792 97,785 83,845 72,222 72,562 66,876 63,964 64,637 63,289 -35.6% -2.1%
Oil 7,344 8,158 8,209 8,077 5,813 5,850 5,933 5,939 5,981 5,974 -18.7% -0.1%
Natural Gas 13,323 12,629 10,228 8,913 8,454 8,410 8,177 7,970 7,880 7,746 -41.9% -1.7%
Venting 71,978 69,005 72,454 60,554 51,052 50,598 45,100 42,214 42,369 40,985 -43.1% -3.3%
Flaring 5,555 5,000 6,894 6,301 6,904 7,705 7,666 7,841 8,407 8,584 54.5% 2.1%
d. CO2 Transport and Storage 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 0.0%
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE 56,808 51,540 54,137 54,462 52,149 53,886 53,231 54,750 53,284 53,865 -5.2% 1.1%
a. Mineral Products 10,275 7,885 8,065 8,852 8,263 9,017 8,411 8,850 8,472 8,797 -14.4% 3.8%
Cement Production 7,614 6,005 6,185 7,195 6,759 7,385 6,752 7,300 6,895 7,144 -6.2% 3.6%
Lime Production 1,834 1,473 1,473 1,339 1,187 1,314 1,338 1,245 1,282 1,373 -25.2% 7.1%
Mineral Product Use 827 406 407 317 318 318 322 305 295 281 -66.1% -4.9%
b. Chemical Industry 9,972 5,720 6,708 6,200 5,929 5,716 5,738 5,597 5,590 5,623 -43.6% 0.6%
Ammonia Production 2,705 2,465 2,916 2,501 2,294 2,538 2,590 2,414 2,291 2,373 -12.3% 3.6%
Nitric Acid Production 1,070 426 200 225 168 192 128 133 129 112 -89.6% -13.3%
Adipic Acid Production 2,264 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100.0% 0.0%
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 3,933 2,829 3,591 3,474 3,467 2,986 3,020 3,050 3,170 3,139 -20.2% -1.0%
c. Metal Production 21,304 17,148 15,722 15,726 14,699 16,063 15,544 16,668 16,499 16,069 -24.6% -2.6%
Iron and Steel Production 11,583 10,257 9,888 10,185 8,688 10,045 9,551 10,076 10,241 10,361 -10.6% 1.2%
Aluminium Production 8,297 6,681 5,621 5,249 5,836 5,774 5,655 6,090 5,960 5,353 -35.5% -10.2%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 1,424 210 212 292 176 244 337 502 297 355 -75.1% 19.5%
d. Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3 4,823 7,503 10,282 11,581 11,297 10,739 10,582 10,244 9,725 10,025 107.8% 3.1%
e. Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 9,927 12,875 12,852 11,488 11,302 11,687 12,348 12,745 12,315 12,666 27.6% 2.9%
f. Other Product Manufacture and Use 507 410 509 616 659 663 608 645 684 684 35.0% 0.1%
AGRICULTURE 56,793 51,381 53,690 54,911 56,682 55,787 56,183 55,429 56,403 54,925 -3.3% -2.6%
a. Enteric Fermentation 34,519 28,312 26,879 27,352 27,294 27,383 27,086 26,461 26,390 26,003 -24.7% -1.5%
b. Manure Management 9,048 7,969 8,057 8,262 8,275 8,311 8,232 8,135 8,186 8,079 -10.7% -1.3%
c. Agricultural Soils 11,769 13,286 16,139 16,575 18,029 16,947 17,967 17,705 18,366 17,706 50.4% -3.6%
Direct Sources 9,034 10,403 12,790 13,066 14,308 13,412 14,376 14,000 14,520 13,755 52.3% -5.3%
Indirect Sources 2,736 2,884 3,349 3,508 3,721 3,534 3,591 3,705 3,845 3,951 44.4% 2.8%
d. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 45 36 60 53 57 38 50 46 47 50 9.8% 5.3%
e. Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1,412 1,777 2,555 2,670 3,028 3,109 2,848 3,082 3,415 3,087 118.7% -9.6%
WASTE 23,488 21,701 22,222 22,982 23,003 23,212 23,121 22,970 22,531 22,405 -4.6% -0.6%
a. Landfills 20,658 18,663 19,080 19,709 19,765 19,925 19,812 19,645 19,149 18,993 -8.1% -0.8%
Municipal Solid Waste Landfills 19,617 17,698 18,214 18,919 18,993 19,172 19,076 18,926 18,446 18,315 -6.6% -0.7%
Industrial Wood Waste Landfills 1,040 965 866 790 772 753 735 719 703 679 -34.8% -3.5%
b. Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 328 384 444 505 511 604 605 605 609 634 93.4% 4.0%
c. Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 349 309 202 173 158 150 170 160 147 146 -58.3% -1.1%
d. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 2,153 2,345 2,495 2,595 2,568 2,534 2,533 2,559 2,626 2,633 22.3% 0.3%
Municipal Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 1,739 1,925 1,990 2,183 2,200 2,180 2,256 2,324 2,395 2,424 39.4% 1.2%
Industrial Wastewater and Discharge 414 420 505 411 368 354 277 235 231 209 -49.5% -9.3%
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2019 2020 2021 2021 2023 2024 2025 EENE Change from 2005 % Change from 2024 %
kt CO2 eq
NATIONAL GHG TOTAL 763,017 732,333 742,437 747,051 680,925 691,322 695,853 686,881 684,705 690,865 -9.5% 0.9%
OIL AND GAS 197,589 205,920 227,013 221,795 202,676 209,355 206,032 203,943 207,610 207,140 4.8% -0.2%
Upstream Oil and Gas 173,513 180,675 205,368 200,938 183,737 189,919 186,012 184,217 187,562 187,119 7.8% -0.2%
Natural Gas Production and Processing 74,761 72,848 68,573 60,857 57,844 59,153 54,117 52,331 51,430 50,937 -31.9% -1.0%
Conventional Oil Production 53,334 50,069 58,561 48,447 36,106 34,990 33,107 32,381 33,738 32,750 -38.6% -2.9%
Oil Sands (Mining, In-situ, Upgrading) 32,965 50,265 68,401 81,801 80,933 85,929 87,534 88,835 91,039 91,883 178.7% 0.9%
Oil, Natural Gas and CO2 Transmission 12,453 7,494 9,832 9,832 8,854 9,847 11,254 10,670 11,355 11,548 -7.3% 1.7%
Downstream Oil and Gas 24,077 25,244 21,646 20,857 18,939 19,436 20,020 19,726 20,048 20,022 -16.8% -0.1%
Petroleum Refining 22,419 23,927 20,607 19,834 17,935 18,415 19,079 18,816 19,161 19,138 -14.6% -0.1%
Natural Gas Distribution 1,658 1,317 1,038 1,023 1,004 1,022 941 909 888 883 -46.7% -0.5%
ELECTRICITY 115,899 94,719 74,479 61,619 53,842 52,471 48,989 50,698 49,592 51,863 -55.3% 4.6%
TRANSPORT 156,201 165,618 161,535 168,798 141,328 146,763 153,152 152,367 151,371 151,945 -2.7% 0.4%
Passenger Transport 95,845 97,552 96,594 103,501 82,719 85,541 91,642 93,077 92,458 93,230 -2.7% 0.8%
Cars, Light Trucks and Motorcycles 84,612 86,570 84,655 90,331 74,513 76,873 79,444 80,261 79,926 80,885 -4.4% 1.2%
Bus, Rail and Aviation 11,232 10,982 11,938 13,170 8,206 8,668 12,198 12,816 12,532 12,346 9.9% -1.5%
Freight Transport 46,719 55,518 51,962 50,659 45,267 47,255 47,651 45,560 45,193 44,920 -3.9% -0.6%
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail 42,264 51,683 48,222 46,398 40,775 42,932 44,176 42,239 41,820 41,681 -1.4% -0.3%
Aviation and Marine 4,456 3,834 3,740 4,261 4,492 4,324 3,475 3,320 3,373 3,239 -27.3% -4.0%
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 13,637 12,547 12,979 14,638 13,342 13,967 13,860 13,730 13,720 13,794 1.2% 0.5%
HEAVY INDUSTRY 88,635 75,814 80,240 80,282 76,814 79,145 79,811 79,182 77,496 76,126 -14.1% -1.8%
Mining 8,842 8,977 9,188 11,049 10,638 10,958 11,726 10,287 10,364 10,159 14.9% -2.0%
Smelting and Refining (Non-Ferrous Metals) 14,259 11,168 10,697 10,123 10,285 10,002 10,361 10,631 9,501 9,084 -36.3% -4.4%
Pulp and Paper 8,987 6,569 6,421 8,171 7,150 7,387 7,538 7,279 6,617 6,155 -31.5% -7.0%
Iron and Steel 16,253 14,197 14,701 14,985 12,755 14,723 13,901 14,442 14,694 14,880 -8.4% 1.3%
Cement 12,700 10,087 10,165 11,453 10,525 11,030 10,492 10,919 10,352 10,609 -16.5% 2.5%
Lime and Gypsum 3,476 2,711 2,547 2,281 2,167 2,202 2,475 2,192 2,165 2,320 -33.3% 7.1%
Chemicals and Fertilizers 24,118 22,105 26,521 22,221 23,294 22,843 23,317 23,433 23,804 23,741 -1.6% -0.3%
BUILDINGS 84,683 81,478 84,500 93,887 88,222 84,817 88,291 82,745 81,424 86,258 1.9% 5.9%
Service Industry 39,948 38,277 41,427 49,889 46,728 44,639 46,419 44,427 43,383 46,153 15.5% 6.4%
Residential 44,735 43,201 43,073 43,997 41,493 40,178 41,872 38,318 38,040 40,106 -10.3% 5.4%
AGRICULTURE 66,189 61,188 66,264 69,419 70,043 69,548 69,883 69,078 69,750 69,645 5.2% -0.2%
On Farm Fuel Use 9,396 9,808 12,575 14,508 13,360 13,760 13,699 13,649 13,347 14,721 56.7% 10.3%
Crop Production 10,648 12,768 16,399 16,906 18,736 17,709 18,500 18,504 19,493 18,538 74.1% -4.9%
Animal Production 46,145 38,613 37,291 38,005 37,946 38,078 37,683 36,925 36,911 36,387 -21.1% -1.4%
WASTE 23,488 21,701 22,222 22,993 23,017 23,236 23,130 22,997 22,573 22,444 -4.4% -0.6%
Solid Waste 20,985 19,046 19,524 20,225 20,290 20,553 20,426 20,278 19,800 19,666 -6.3% -0.7%
Wastewater 2,153 2,345 2,495 2,595 2,568 2,534 2,533 2,559 2,626 2,633 22.3% 0.3%
Waste Incineration 349 309 202 173 158 150 170 160 147 146 -58.3% -1.1%
COAL PRODUCTION 2,943 3,359 2,901 3,409 2,848 3,024 3,029 3,162 2,831 2,659 -9.7% -6.1%
LIGHT MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND FOREST RESOURCES 27,389 22,536 23,283 24,848 22,136 22,962 23,536 22,708 22,058 21,964 -19.8% -0.4%
Light Manufacturing 16,919 14,345 14,434 14,116 13,102 13,587 14,334 13,978 13,444 13,275 -21.5% -1.3%
Construction 7,682 6,101 6,762 8,131 6,793 6,959 6,786 6,485 6,426 6,541 -14.8% 1.8%
Forest Resources 2,789 2,089 2,086 2,602 2,242 2,416 2,416 2,245 2,188 2,147 -23.0% -1.9%
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The federal government recalibrates the methodologies on which the NIR is based every year to align with improvements in international emissions accounting standards. All emissions years in the inventory are adjusted when methodologies are updated.