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Early Estimate of National Emissions

Independent advance data for Canada’s National Inventory Report 

By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date. To provide more timely emissions estimates to inform decision making, 440 Megatonnes–in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting and the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre–has developed an independent Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).

Our first early estimate, covering Canada’s 2021 emissions, was released in February 2023. Going forward, 440 Megatonnes will release the next annual Estimate each Fall–eight months ahead of the official National Inventory Report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

The EENE estimates emissions by sector, based on economic data and historical trends in energy efficiency, emission intensity, and energy decarbonization. Read more about our methodology here.

In the table below, data from 2005 to 2020 is from ECCC’s official National Inventory Report. 2021 estimates are based on our independent calculations.

Read our insight about trends in national emissions based on our 2021 estimate. Stay tuned for more analysis on sector-by-sector results.

Download Data
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 * Change from 2005 % Change from 2020 %
kt CO2eq
TOTAL 741,176 709,837 732,532 715,090 725,012 740,004 738,282 672,352 691,089 -6.8% 2.8%
ENERGY 601,697 583,568 600,423 581,268 593,568 605,942 604,376 539,519 560,102 -6.9% 3.8%
a. Stationary Combustion Sources 339,046 318,230 325,198 313,005 318,102 322,706 321,686 299,897 306,969 -9.5% 2.4%
Public Electricity and Heat Production 124,725 101,995 87,676 81,365 79,246 70,780 69,555 62,131 61,237 -50.9% -1.4%
Petroleum Refining Industries 20,064 19,026 15,980 16,314 14,512 14,715 15,762 14,427 14,559 -27.4% 0.9%
Oil and Gas Extraction 62,930 76,957 97,577 94,300 97,893 104,160 103,850 99,979 105,307 67.3% 5.3%
Mining 4,350 5,765 4,645 4,421 5,007 6,463 6,369 6,049 6,230 43.2% 3.0%
Manufacturing Industries 47,630 40,967 43,795 42,328 42,593 42,596 43,032 38,527 40,362 -15.3% 4.8%
Iron and Steel 5,509 4,949 5,755 5,616 6,000 6,384 6,067 4,684 5,621 2.0% 20.0%
Non-Ferrous Metals 3,637 3,061 3,132 3,207 3,251 2,823 3,266 3,047 3,006 -17.4% -1.4%
Chemical 8,256 9,871 12,070 10,799 9,775 9,459 9,642 9,378 9,114 10.4% -2.8%
Pulp and Paper 8,603 5,921 5,997 6,006 6,401 7,087 7,187 6,476 6,825 -20.7% 5.4%
Cement 5,404 4,080 3,910 3,927 4,159 4,172 4,009 3,131 3,723 -31.1% 18.9%
Other Manufacturing 16,222 13,085 12,932 12,772 13,006 12,671 12,860 11,811 12,072 -25.6% 2.2%
Construction 1,445 1,516 1,306 1,295 1,304 1,382 1,441 1,432 1,405 -2.8% -1.9%
Commercial and Institutional 32,380 28,565 30,383 31,915 34,204 35,572 37,508 36,232 36,868 13.9% 1.8%
Residential 43,338 40,589 40,878 37,883 40,264 43,854 40,681 38,024 37,873 -12.6% -0.4%
Agriculture and Forestry 2,184 2,850 2,958 3,184 3,079 3,183 3,489 3,096 3,129 43.3% 1.1%
b. Transport 189,858 193,747 201,112 200,333 207,546 215,020 216,440 189,933 199,236 4.9% 4.9%
Aviation 7,721 6,686 7,586 7,520 7,937 8,665 8,586 4,809 5,274 -31.7% 9.7%
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 7,461 6,429 7,350 7,265 7,706 8,418 8,343 4,623 5,063 -32.1% 9.5%
Military 259 257 235 255 231 247 243 187 211 -18.6% 13.0%
Road Transportation 129,674 137,314 142,447 144,580 147,911 151,544 152,784 131,196 139,901 7.9% 6.6%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 41,438 37,816 34,458 34,611 33,707 33,015 32,376 25,036 27,552 -33.5% 10.0%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 38,142 41,328 45,250 48,065 49,246 51,085 53,053 45,455 49,300 29.3% 8.5%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 11,677 12,518 12,304 13,044 13,304 13,403 13,544 12,621 12,742 9.1% 1.0%
Motorcycles 204 248 271 287 296 296 298 243 264 29.8% 8.5%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 605 663 901 842 842 810 777 492 534 -11.8% 8.5%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 345 422 809 900 1,083 1,182 1,203 991 1,076 211.5% 8.5%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 36,882 44,280 48,446 46,822 49,423 51,743 51,523 46,352 48,427 31.3% 4.5%
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 381 38 8 9 10 10 10 5 6 -98.5% 12.0%
Railways 6,581 6,534 7,101 6,528 7,473 7,634 7,690 7,167 7,500 14.0% 4.6%
Marine 3,976 3,680 3,431 3,515 3,647 3,830 4,358 4,190 4,040 1.6% -3.6%
Domestic Navigation 3,078 2,825 3,104 3,203 3,383 3,597 4,069 3,850 3,909 27.0% 1.6%
Fishing 871 828 220 232 205 193 215 232 26 -97.0% -88.9%
Military Water-Borne Navigation 27 27 107 79 59 40 74 108 104 288.4% -3.6%
Other Transportation 41,906 39,532 40,547 38,190 40,578 43,347 43,021 42,570 42,521 1.5% -0.1%
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 11,385 11,052 10,426 9,653 10,363 11,160 11,130 11,625 11,216 -1.5% -3.5%
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 2,397 2,682 2,721 2,552 2,818 2,897 2,950 2,881 2,884 20.3% 0.1%
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 10,381 12,613 13,080 12,186 13,526 14,421 14,171 14,117 14,205 36.8% 0.6%
Off-Road Residential 1,249 1,165 1,223 1,167 1,192 1,229 1,242 1,230 1,352 8.2% 10.0%
Off-Road Other Transportation 6,396 6,297 4,824 4,915 5,123 5,261 5,050 4,984 4,852 -21.4% -2.6%
Pipeline Transport 10,097 5,724 8,272 7,716 7,555 8,378 8,479 7,733 8,012 -20.7% 3.6%
c. Fugitive Sources 72,793 71,591 74,113 67,929 67,921 68,216 66,249 49,690 53,898 -26.0% 8.5%
Coal Mining 1,392 1,380 1,142 1,262 1,216 1,334 1,394 1,068 1,222 -12.2% 14.4%
Oil and Natural Gas 71,401 70,210 72,971 66,668 66,704 66,882 64,855 48,622 52,676 -26.2% 8.3%
Oil 11,897 13,298 13,640 14,080 14,287 14,558 14,536 11,719 11,695 -1.7% -0.2%
Natural Gas 15,255 14,480 12,677 11,984 11,425 11,454 11,012 8,744 9,642 -36.8% 10.3%
Venting 38,758 37,440 39,768 34,891 34,963 34,553 33,220 21,748 25,410 -34.4% 16.8%
Flaring 5,491 4,993 6,886 5,713 6,030 6,316 6,088 6,411 5,929 8.0% -7.5%
d. CO2 Transport and Storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE 56,586 50,654 53,529 54,511 52,678 53,894 53,476 50,330 51,846 -8.4% 3.0%
a. Mineral Products 10,278 7,828 8,006 7,880 8,578 8,627 8,779 8,121 8,840 -14.0% 8.9%
Cement Production 7,614 6,005 6,185 6,114 6,827 6,915 7,125 6,625 7,382 -3.0% 11.4%
Lime Production 1,753 1,416 1,414 1,378 1,422 1,388 1,339 1,193 1,174 -33.0% -1.6%
Mineral Product Use 911 406 407 388 329 325 315 303 284 -68.8% -6.4%
b. Chemical Industry 10,430 5,820 6,800 7,017 6,416 6,809 6,714 6,586 6,495 -37.7% -1.4%
Ammonia Production 2,728 2,488 2,941 2,873 2,646 2,424 2,512 2,467 2,386 -12.5% -3.3%
Nitric Acid Production 1,203 479 225 261 245 272 253 189 184 -87.4% -2.7%
Adipic Acid Production 2,546 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100.0% 0.0%
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 3,953 2,853 3,634 3,882 3,525 4,114 3,948 3,930 3,925 -0.7% -0.1%
c. Metal Production 20,229 16,031 14,425 15,349 14,604 14,537 13,866 12,989 13,471 -33.4% 3.7%
Iron and Steel Production 10,311 8,980 8,473 9,217 8,454 8,882 8,277 6,985 8,182 -20.7% 17.1%
Aluminium Production 8,685 6,866 5,717 5,993 6,012 5,507 5,293 5,901 5,142 -40.8% -12.9%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 1,233 185 235 139 139 148 296 102 147 -88.0% 44.8%
d. Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3 5,117 7,744 11,099 11,360 11,153 12,206 12,172 12,001 12,452 143.4% 3.8%
e. Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 9,988 12,800 12,658 12,310 11,298 11,014 11,282 9,908 9,859 -1.3% -0.5%
f. Other Product Manufacture and Use 544 431 541 595 630 700 664 726 729 -33.9% 0.4%
AGRICULTURE 54,176 49,547 52,375 53,054 52,043 53,178 53,280 55,160 51,492 -5.0% -6.6%
a. Enteric Fermentation 30,821 25,281 24,008 24,207 24,216 24,142 24,009 23,677 24,043 -22.0% 1.5%
b. Manure Management 8,716 7,662 7,718 7,843 7,859 7,830 7,838 7,792 7,974 -8.5% 2.3%
c. Agricultural Soils 13,176 14,782 18,027 18,411 17,480 18,559 18,707 20,601 16,915 28.4% -17.9%
Direct Sources 10,098 11,536 14,255 14,520 13,721 14,637 14,765 16,407 13,464 33.3% -17.9%
Indirect Sources 3,078 3,246 3,772 3,892 3,759 3,922 3,942 4,194 3,451 12.1% -17.7%
d. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 43 34 56 49 50 49 49 53 44 2.9% -17.7%
e. Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1,421 1,788 2,566 2,544 2,437 2,597 2,678 3,037 2,516 77.1% -17.1%
WASTE 28,717 26,068 26,205 26,257 26,722 26,990 27,150 27,344 27,649 -3.7% 1.1%
a. Solid Waste Disposal (Landfills) 22,968 20,547 20,607 20,861 21,389 21,678 21,906 22,135 22,367 -2.6% 1.0%
b. Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 243 265 314 318 328 360 364 358 368 51.2% 2.7%
c. Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 1,899 2,076 2,585 2,443 2,451 2,474 2,466 2,508 2,513 32.3% 0.2%
d. Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 346 305 197 204 191 181 177 165 152 -56.2% -8.0%
e. Industrial Wood Waste Landfills 3,261 2,875 2,501 2,431 2,363 2,298 2,237 2,178 2,250 -31.0% 3.3%
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 * Change from 2005 % Change from 2020 %
kt CO2eq
NATIONAL GHG TOTAL 741,176 709,837 732,532 715,090 725,012 740,004 738,282 672,352 691,089 -6.8% 2.8%
OIL AND GAS 171,302 181,443 204,803 194,354 196,496 205,016 203,482 178,796 189,866 10.8% 6.2%
Upstream Oil and Gas 148,232 158,402 184,114 173,354 177,159 185,724 183,353 160,442 171,316 15.6% 6.8%
Natural Gas Production and Processing 65,816 63,606 60,974 56,818 53,917 56,341 54,975 44,159 48,394 -26.5% 9.6%
Conventional Oil Production 35,156 33,379 40,076 36,644 36,521 36,806 34,800 25,380 26,613 -24.3% 4.9%
Oil Sands (Mining, In-situ, Upgrading) 35,089 54,132 72,869 70,032 76,956 81,973 82,823 80,891 86,015 145.1% 6.3%
Oil, Natural Gas and CO2 Transmission 12,171 7,284 10,195 9,861 9,765 10,604 10,755 10,012 10,293 -15.4% 2.8%
Downstream Oil and Gas 23,070 23,041 20,688 21,000 19,336 19,292 20,129 18,354 18,551 -19.6% 1.1%
Petroleum Refining 21,780 21,855 19,509 19,839 18,176 18,143 18,977 17,206 17,397 -20.1% 1.1%
Natural Gas Distribution 1,290 1,186 1,180 1,160 1,160 1,149 1,152 1,148 1,154 -10.6% 0.5%
ELECTRICITY 117,545 94,620 79,676 74,270 72,630 62,764 61,778 56,185 54,448 -53.7% -3.1%
TRANSPORT 160,096 167,225 172,064 173,469 178,918 184,055 185,463 159,166 168,556 5.3% 5.9%
Passenger Transport 90,386 89,749 91,670 94,550 95,513 97,487 98,704 79,649 86,573 -4.2% 8.7%
Cars, Light Trucks and Motorcycles 82,177 81,915 82,884 85,890 86,447 87,730 88,980 73,426 79,946 -2.7% 8.9%
Bus, Rail and Aviation 8,209 7,834 8,786 8,659 9,066 9,757 9,723 6,224 6,627 -19.3% 6.5%
Freight Transport 59,688 67,372 71,684 70,342 74,334 77,244 77,582 70,491 72,960 22.2% 3.5%
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail 54,373 62,667 67,204 65,763 69,501 72,119 72,003 65,554 67,986 25.0% 3.7%
Aviation and Marine 5,316 4,705 4,480 4,579 4,833 5,124 5,579 4,937 4,974 -6.4% 0.7%
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential 10,022 10,105 8,710 8,578 9,072 9,324 9,177 9,026 9,023 -10.0% 0.0%
HEAVY INDUSTRY 87,163 74,552 77,765 76,295 75,529 77,490 77,353 71,796 74,245 -14.8% 3.4%
Mining 6,669 7,904 7,738 7,119 7,796 9,173 8,804 9,207 9,126 -36.8% -0.9%
Smelting and Refining (Non-Ferrous Metals) 14,277 11,049 10,340 10,577 10,784 9,811 10,572 10,179 9,493 -33.5% -6.7%
Pulp and Paper 8,993 6,563 6,414 6,574 6,935 7,833 8,198 7,217 7,724 -14.1% 7.0%
Iron and Steel 16,197 14,206 14,524 15,098 14,837 15,663 14,686 11,954 14,144 -12.7% 18.3%
Cement 13,060 10,144 10,167 10,096 11,061 11,174 11,224 9,853 11,213 -14.1% 13.8%
Lime and Gypsum 3,473 2,607 2,485 2,475 2,566 2,393 2,282 2,051 2,015 -42.0% -1.8%
Chemicals and Fertilizers 24,495 22,078 26,098 24,354 21,551 21,444 21,586 21,335 20,531 -16.2% -3.8%
BUILDINGS 83,670 79,437 83,819 82,243 86,632 92,948 92,006 87,762 88,612 5.9% 1.0%
Service Industry 40,024 38,166 41,757 43,251 45,032 47,370 49,448 47,891 48,733 21.8% 1.8%
Residential 43,646 41,271 42,062 38,992 41,599 45,578 42,558 39,872 39,878 -8.6% 0.0%
AGRICULTURE 66,441 62,038 64,649 64,942 64,331 66,257 66,665 68,655 64,524 -2.9% -6.0%
On Farm Fuel Use 12,264 12,491 12,274 11,889 12,288 13,080 13,385 13,495 13,032 6.3% -3.4%
Crop Production 11,718 13,958 17,974 18,290 17,258 18,491 18,716 20,988 17,267 47.4% -17.7%
Animal Production 42,458 35,589 34,401 34,764 34,786 34,687 34,564 34,172 34,225 -19.4% 0.2%
WASTE 28,717 26,068 26,205 26,257 26,724 26,991 27,163 27,359 27,664 -3.7% 1.1%
Solid Waste 26,472 23,687 23,422 23,610 24,082 24,336 24,521 24,687 24,999 -5.6% 1.3%
Wastewater 1,899 2,076 2,585 2,443 2,451 2,474 2,466 2,508 2,513 32.3% 0.2%
Waste Incineration 346 305 197 204 191 181 177 165 152 -56.2% -8.0%
COAL PRODUCTION 2,348 2,763 2,268 2,439 2,233 2,545 2,545 2,278 2,314 -1.5% 1.6%
LIGHT MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND FOREST RESOURCES 23,893 21,692 21,283 20,821 21,519 21,938 21,827 20,355 20,861 -12.7% 2.5%
Light Manufacturing 16,682 14,509 14,780 14,370 14,324 14,296 14,333 13,346 13,544 -5.7% 1.5%
Construction 5,775 5,716 5,333 5,436 5,950 6,282 6,057 5,566 5,777 -6.3% 3.8%
Forest Resources 1,437 1,467 1,171 1,015 1,245 1,360 1,437 1,443 1,540 51.8% 6.7%

* 2021 data are preliminary estimates by the Canadian Climate Institute.