This new capacity would add the equivalent of one third of Ontario’s electricity grid.
Electricity will be central to the transition to a low carbon economy. As Canada decarbonizes by switching to clean technologies like electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps, research from the Canadian Climate Institute shows that the country will also have to build a bigger, cleaner, and smarter grid.
For electricity utilities across Canada, rapidly rising electricity demand means that not only do they need to build more, they also need to build faster.
In a previous Insight, we looked at how much clean electricity capacity is in the pipeline across Canada. This week’s Insight explores how much clean electricity is on the utilities’ shopping list.
Canada’s growing appetite for electricity
Higher electricity demand requires greater generation capacity. This is not a one-to-one relationship: according to the Institute’s research, a demand increase of 1.6 to 2.2 times means Canada will need 2.2 to 3.4 times more generation capacity.
These estimates are relatively aligned with projections from utilities across the country as well (Figure 1). For example, the accelerated electrification scenario from BC Hydro’s updated Integrated Resource Plan expects that the provinces’ electricity demand will rise by approximately 40 per cent by 2041. In the case of Ontario, the Independent Electricity System Operators (IESO) had to revise their projections just from last year, upping the increase in demand from 60 per cent to 75 per cent by 2050.
In Canada, the responsibility to meet this growing electricity demand is under provincial jurisdiction. How each province procures the necessary supply to meet demand varies, and is largely dependent on how electricity markets are organized.
In most of the country, government-owned, regulated monopolies or Crown utilities are responsible for electricity generation and delivery. But as the demand for electricity has risen along with the availability of cheaper wind and solar energy, these utilities have been increasingly turning to independent power producers to procure new supply. By contrast, Alberta has a deregulated energy market and relies on different mechanisms to connect energy to the grid.
Our analysis focuses on the former: government-owned, regulated monopolies or Crown utilities and their plans for procurement to meet the growing demand for electricity.
Wind, solar, and storage capacity are set to double in seven provinces
Our analysis looked at seven provinces with long-term procurement plans and found that since 2023, nearly 14,000 megawatts (MW) of non-hydro renewable energy generation and storage capacity has been procured or is in the process of being procured.
That’s like adding more than one third the total generating capacity of Ontario’s grid. Together, the planned capacity procurements to date represent almost a doubling of existing wind and solar capacity from these seven provinces.
Ontario currently leads in procurements for the next decade, with a target of roughly 6,800 MW of renewable capacity to be procured by 2030. That makes up nearly half of all the planned renewable procurements in the seven provinces. Ontario’s procurements are managed by IESO as Long-Term Request for Proposal procurements (LT RFPs), and are guided by IESO’s resource adequacy framework. Meeting that target would more than double the current transmission-connected capacity of all wind and solar power in the province.
A significant quantity of new wind power projects have also recently been selected in Quebec and British Columbia. Both provincial utilities have procured around 1,600 MW of wind capacity each. BC Hydro’s recent procurement is aligned with its recently updated integrated resource plan, and they also plan to have more frequent competitive calls for power in the future. Quebec is also aiming to triple wind power generation with more than 10,000 MW of new wind capacity by 2035.
Manitoba plans to put out a call for power last year for 600 MW of new wind capacity, as part of its Manitoba Affordable Energy Plan.
Other provinces have also identified the need to significantly increase clean electricity generation, but have yet to open further procurement opportunities. Saskatchewan is notably aiming to add 3,000 MW of wind and solar generation to the grid by 2035, and has started with 800 MW of solar procurements in recent years.
New Brunswick put out a request for expressions of interest for 270 MW of renewable generation and storage in 2023. The provincial government has outlined 1,400 MW of wind procurements out to 2033 in their roadmap.
Nova Scotia’s Clean Power Plan is also planning on adding more than 1,000 MW of new wind and 300 MW of large solar projects by 2030, with future procurements likely to be introduced in 2025 and 2027.
Newfoundland has also identified the need for 400 MW of new wind in their 2024 Reliability and Resource Adequacy review, however the details are yet to be released as to how this will be procured.
Several of these procurement programs are increasingly focused on majority-owned Indigenous clean electricity projects. Manitoba’s call for power, for instance, is specifically targeting projects that have at least 51 per cent Indigenous ownership, along with a 25 per cent equity requirement. In B.C., eight out of the nine projects selected for BC Hydro’s most recent call for power included 51 per cent equity ownership held by First Nations.
These additional procurements are encouraging news, and to continue momentum, provinces can introduce timelines or integrate future procurements into resource planning as part of net zero energy roadmaps. Longer-term planning of procurements can give project developers more certainty for future rounds of available funding.
With smart planning, procurements can set up Canadians for a clean electricity future.
Arthur Zhang is a Senior Research Associate at the Canadian Climate Institute